Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 10, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, Sanction Pressures, Commodity Market Trends, Fuel Production, Energy Policy, and Global Trends.
The latest events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 10, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their complexity. The confrontation between Russia and the West continues to develop under the conditions of sanction pressure: there has been no direct easing of restrictions; on the contrary, G7 countries and the EU are discussing new tightening measures against the Russian oil and gas sector in early 2026. The global oil market meanwhile maintains a fragile equilibrium: Brent prices hover around the mid-$60 per barrel mark, reflecting a balance between rising supply and weakening demand. The European gas market enters winter relatively confidently – underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU remains over 75% full at the beginning of December, ensuring a buffer and keeping prices at moderate levels. The global energy transition continues to accelerate: record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources are reported in many regions, although countries have not yet abandoned traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following an autumn surge in prices, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Cautious Management of Production Amid Risk of Oversupply
Global oil prices remain relatively stable under the influence of multiple fundamental factors. North Sea Brent is trading around $62–64 per barrel, while US WTI is in the range of $58–60. Current prices are roughly 10% lower than last year's levels, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks of 2022–2023. Multiple key trends are influencing price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Growth: The oil alliance has gradually increased market supply throughout 2025. In December, production quotas for key participants in the deal were raised by another 137,000 barrels per day (as in the previous two months); however, it was decided to pause the increase in production for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent an oversupply. From April to November, the total OPEC+ quota increased by about 2.9 million barrels per day, leading to a rise in global oil and petroleum product stocks.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing at more moderate rates. According to revised estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil demand is expected to increase by about 0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (in comparison, it exceeded 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC’s forecasts have become more restrained; the cartel expects demand growth of about 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day for 2025. The reasons include a slowing global economy and the impact of high prices from previous years, encouraging energy conservation. An additional factor has been a slowdown in industrial growth in China, limiting the appetites of the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
- Sanctions and Uncertainty: Sanction pressure creates conflicting effects in the market. On one hand, new Western restrictions—such as the US and UK sanctions against major Russian oil companies—complicate production growth in Russia, maintaining the risk of shortages of certain types of crude oil. On the other hand, Russian supplies continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted prices, mitigating the overall impact of sanctions on global supply. Additionally, investor optimism has been bolstered by signals of progress in trade negotiations between the US and major partners, improving sentiment in the oil market.
In total, these factors lead to a market state close to surplus: oil supply slightly exceeds demand, keeping prices from rallying again. Exchange quotes remain significantly below the highs of previous years. Some analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average Brent price could drop to the range of $50–55 per barrel in 2026.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the main focus remains on Europe. EU countries have entered the winter period with historically high gas reserves: by early November, European UGS were nearly 98% full, and by the first decade of December, stock levels are comfortably around 75%. This is significantly higher than average levels in previous years and provides a reliable buffer in case of cold weather. Market prices for gas remain relatively low; January futures at the TTF hub are trading around €27–28/MWh (about $340 per thousand cubic meters), reflecting a balance of supply and demand. The continued influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) strengthens market stability: by the end of 2025, total LNG imports into Europe could set a new record, compensating for decreased pipeline gas supplies. A potential risk factor remains the possibility of a cold snap or increased competition for LNG from Asia; however, the situation currently favors consumers. Moderate gas prices contribute to lower costs for industry and energy in Europe at the beginning of winter.
International Politics: Sanctions Without Easing and New Measures Approaching
Despite some diplomatic contacts, there has been no noticeable easing of sanction policies in the oil and gas sector. On the contrary, Western countries signal their readiness to tighten restrictions. In December, the G7 and the European Union held discussions on a new package of sanctions against Moscow. According to sources, the introduction of a complete ban on maritime transport of Russian oil from 2026 is under consideration, which could replace the current price cap of $60 per barrel. The goal of such measures is to further cut Russia's export revenues. The US authorities also imposed additional sanctions on Russian oil giants in late autumn, complicating their access to technology and financing. As a result, uncertainty remains for the industry: on one hand, there have not been significant supply disruptions thanks to the restructuring of logistical chains; on the other hand, the prospect of new restrictions makes market participants cautious.
A positive note remains the preservation of dialogue channels. Contacts between relevant agencies in Russia and several Asian countries continue, allowing energy flows to be redirected and mitigating the impact of sanctions. Additionally, there is a certain improvement in global trade relations: the easing of tensions between major economies (such as the gradual resolution of trade disputes between the US and China) supports investor confidence and demand for energy resources. In the coming months, markets will focus on the development of the sanction situation: the implementation of new restrictions or, conversely, a pause in sanction pressure will significantly affect sentiments and long-term strategies of energy companies.
Asia: Major Consumers Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing ongoing sanction pressures, New Delhi aims to secure its energy balance. A sharp refusal to import Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for the country; therefore, Indian authorities continue to procure Russian energy resources, achieving favorable conditions. Russian companies offer significant discounts to Indian refineries relative to Brent prices (estimated at about $4–6 per barrel of Urals), allowing India to increase its imports of oil and petroleum products to meet domestic demand. At the same time, India is focusing on developing its resource base: as part of its national program for the exploration of deep-sea fields, the state-owned company ONGC is conducting exploratory drilling in the Andaman Sea, with initial results deemed promising. Success in discovering new reserves of oil and gas could reduce the country's dependence on external supplies.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to adhere to a multi-vector strategy. On one hand, China remains the leading buyer of Russian oil and gas, taking advantage of the situation to replenish stocks at acceptable prices. In 2024, the PRC imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas (increases of 1.8% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively), with import volumes remaining high in 2025 with slight increases. On the other hand, Beijing is ramping up domestic production: from January to October 2025, China produced about 200 million tons of oil (+1.2% year-on-year) and 320 billion cubic meters of gas (+5.8% year-on-year). Although the share of domestic production is rising, the country still relies on imports for approximately 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. To improve energy security, China is investing in field development, enhanced oil recovery technologies, and storage infrastructure expansion. Thus, India and China—key players in the Asian region—continue to play a dual role in the FEC markets, combining active imports of energy resources with measures to enhance domestic production.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewables and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to low-carbon energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries have reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar and wind power facilities are setting new generation maxima. In the European Union, by the end of the year, the combined share of solar and wind generation for the first time exceeded electricity production from coal and gas power plants, continuing the trend of recent years in displacing fossil fuels. In the US, the share of renewables in overall generation consistently exceeds 30%, and for the first time, generation from wind and solar outpaced production at coal-fired plants over the year. China, a leader in the scale of renewables, introduced dozens of new gigawatts of capacity—more than 100 GW of solar panels and wind turbines installed in 2025 alone, setting new national records. According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards renewable projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
At the same time, ensuring the stability of energy systems still requires the participation of traditional forms of generation. The increasing share of renewables poses challenges for the energy sector: during hours when solar or wind generation is low, backup capacity is required. In many countries, during peak demand periods and adverse weather conditions, gas and even coal power plants are brought back online. For instance, some European nations temporarily increased coal-fired generation last winter during windless weather, despite environmental costs. Governments and companies are rapidly developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage power plants) and smart grids to enhance the flexibility and reliability of energy supply. Experts predict that by the end of the decade, renewable sources could take the lead globally in electricity generation. However, during the transitional period, the need for support from gas and other traditional stations will persist. Thus, the energy transition is progressing steadily, although the balance between "green" technologies and classical resources remains critically important for the industry’s stability.
Coal: Market Stabilization Amid Strong Demand
The global coal market in 2025 is demonstrating relative stability amid still high demand. Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, coal consumption remains significant, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. China continues to support coal burning at near-record levels—annual Chinese generation consumes over 4 billion tons of coal, and national production (about 4.4 billion tons per year) barely meets domestic needs. India, with its significant reserves, is also actively utilizing coal: over 70% of electricity in the country is generated at coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing new coal plant projects to meet the growing demand for electricity.
Supply in the global coal market is adapting to high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—have ramped up production and export of thermal coal in recent years, which has helped keep prices within a moderate range after the extreme spikes of 2022. In 2025, thermal coal prices fluctuate around $100–120 per ton, reflecting a balance of interests between consumers and producers. Buyers obtain fuel at relatively acceptable prices, while mining companies enjoy stable sales with sufficient profit. Many states are declaring long-term plans to reduce coal’s share for climate purposes, but in the next 5–10 years, it will remain a major energy source for billions of people, especially in Asia. Thus, the coal industry is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and despite the climate agenda, coal continues to be one of the key pillars of the global energy sector.
Russian Oil Products Market: Outcomes of Price Control Measures
In the domestic fuel market of Russia, an interim summary of the emergency measures taken is being drawn up by the end of the year. In autumn 2025, following a spike in wholesale gasoline prices to record levels, the government undertook several steps to normalize the situation:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: the complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, introduced in September, was extended until early October and then gradually eased for major refineries. With the market balance improving, the largest oil refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments, while restrictions remained in place for independent traders and smaller plants.
- Resource Distribution Control: the cause of supply shortages was unscheduled shutdowns at several refineries (accidents and drone attacks disrupted large plants, reducing fuel output). Authorities have intensified oversight of the distribution of oil products in the domestic market—producers are required to prioritize meeting the needs of domestic consumers, and practices of exchanging fuel on exchanges between wholesalers that inflated prices have been curtailed. The Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, and the Saint Petersburg Exchange are jointly developing a transition to long-term direct contracts between refineries and distribution companies to eliminate intermediaries from the supply chain.
- Subsidies and Dampers: the state continued to provide financial support to the sector. The mechanism of reverse excise tax on oil (the so-called "damper") and direct subsidies to refiners partially compensated for their lost revenues from domestic fuel sales, encouraging them to direct a larger volume of oil products to the domestic market.
The complex of measures taken has helped avoid acute supply disruptions—gas stations across the country are stocked with gasoline and diesel fuel. However, it has not been possible to fully contain price growth: according to Rosstat, by early December, retail gasoline prices in Russia rose about 12% since the beginning of the year, while overall inflation was around 5%. Thus, fuel prices increased twice as fast as the overall consumer basket, indicating ongoing pressure on the market. Authorities state that they will continue to keep the situation under control: if necessary, export restrictions may be strengthened again, and industry support is planned to be extended. Already in December, a specialized headquarters led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak is discussing additional measures—from adjusting the damper to replenishing fuel reserves—to prevent the recurrence of price spikes. The government aims to ensure stable supplies of oil products to the domestic market and keep prices for end consumers within acceptable limits, minimizing risks for the economy and the social sphere.
