Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports as of December 23, 2025. Focus: Preliminary GDP Estimate for the U.S. Q3, Minutes of the RBA's Latest Meeting, Key Indicators of Consumer and Industrial Confidence in the U.S., as well as Company Reports from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.
On Tuesday, a significant block of macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. will hit the markets, likely setting the trading direction ahead of the Christmas holidays. Investors are focused on the first official estimate of U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2025, which was previously delayed due to a pause in the functioning of U.S. government institutions. In addition to GDP, several indicators — from durable goods orders and industrial production to consumer confidence index — will provide a comprehensive view of the U.S. economy's state at year-end. In the Asia-Pacific region, market participants will scrutinize the tone of the minutes from the RBA's last meeting for hints regarding future monetary policy. On the corporate front, activity is slowing down: in the U.S., only a few mid-tier companies are set to release earnings, while in Europe, Asia, and the Russian market, no major releases are anticipated. The aggregate of these factors will determine investor sentiment, with the need to correlate macro data with the prospects for Fed interest rates, dollar dynamics, commodity prices, and overall risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 03:30 — Australia: Minutes of the RBA Meeting (Reserve Bank of Australia).
- 16:15 — USA: Employment Indicator from ADP (weekly report).
- 16:30 — USA: Durable Goods Orders for October.
- 16:30 — USA: Housing Starts for September.
- 16:30 — USA: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
- 17:15 — USA: Industrial Production for November.
- 18:00 — USA: Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board (December).
- 18:00 — USA: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December).
- 00:30 (Wed) — USA: Weekly Crude Oil Inventories from API.
USA: Q3 GDP and Economic Dynamics
- Preliminary GDP (Q3 2025): The first estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter should clarify how confidently the economy finished the year. A solid annual growth rate is expected (around 3-4%), reflecting a recovery from the downturn at the beginning of 2025. Investors will pay close attention to the GDP structure: steady household consumption and rising business investments confirm economic resilience, while weakness in these areas would signal a budding slowdown. The unusually late release of GDP (pushed to late December due to data delays) enhances intrigue and may induce heightened volatility in the U.S. stock market and Treasury bond market.
- Domestic Demand and Inflation: Components of GDP based on expenditure (personal consumption, business capital investment) will be evaluated through the lens of inflationary trends. If GDP growth accompanies moderate core inflation, this will support expectations of a "soft landing" and possible Fed interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026. However, excessively high rates of economic expansion could heighten concerns about overheating and Fed tightening, potentially provoking a rise in Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.
- Impact of Foreign Trade and Inventories: Markets will pay particular attention to the contribution of the external sector and inventory changes to overall GDP dynamics. A significant contribution from exports or a reduction in imports will improve the trade balance, supporting industrial and commodity companies (especially amid the weakening of the U.S. dollar in recent months). Conversely, a significant increase in goods inventories may signal demand saturation and the risk of production slowdown ahead. Investors need to differentiate between one-off factors and sustainable trends embedded in these components to adjust strategies for early 2026.
U.S. Manufacturing Indicators and Housing Market
- Durable Goods Orders (October): The indicator of new orders for durable goods reflects corporate capital expenditures and demand for long-lasting items (from cars to equipment). A modest increase in orders is anticipated after a decline in the previous month, which would indicate a recovery in industrial activity in the fourth quarter. Special focus will be on the category of core orders (Core Capital Goods) excluding defense and aerospace — their steady growth signals business confidence and investment plans. For markets, positive order dynamics will be a plus for industrial sector stocks and Dow Jones, while weak data may amplify concerns over stagnation in manufacturing.
- Housing Starts: Data on new housing construction for September (delayed for publication in December) will showcase the state of the U.S. housing market against a backdrop of high mortgage rates. If the number of new constructions has significantly increased, this indicates some adaptation from builders and buyers to expensive credit, which would support shares of developers and related sectors. A continuing decline in Housing Starts, on the other hand, would confirm that the housing sector remains under pressure — such a signal may impact the shares of construction companies, building materials producers, and indirectly affect the consumer sector (through household wealth effects).
- Industrial Production (November): The Fed's report on industrial output for November will complement the picture of the manufacturing sector's condition. In October, the manufacturing index rose thanks to energy, and investors expect this trend to continue or, at least, stabilize. An important detail will be the figures for manufacturing — an increase in factory output will indicate higher demand and easing inventory levels, while a decline will be a worrisome sign heading into the new year. The market's reaction to these data will manifest in the sectoral dynamics of stocks: improved industrial production will support the industrial and commodities segment of the S&P 500, while weakness may intensify interest in defensive instruments.
Consumer Confidence and Labor Market in the U.S.
- Consumer Confidence Index (December): The fresh consumer confidence index from the Conference Board will showcase the mood of American households at year-end. A slight improvement is expected after a dip in autumn: ahead of the holidays, consumers are traditionally more optimistic due to discounts and bonuses, although high inflation and costly credit still dampen enthusiasm. If the indicator surpasses expectations, this will be a positive signal for retail companies and the service sector (increased spending means higher revenue). Conversely, a decline in the confidence index could indicate consumer caution and a desire to save, putting investors on alert about the economic outlook at the beginning of 2026.
- Labor Market: ADP Data and Regional Indicators: The weekly ADP employment report will provide a timely assessment of hiring dynamics in the U.S. private sector. Recent publications pointed to a slowdown in job creation – if this trend continues (with new jobs nearing zero or negative), it will correspond with the overall picture of the labor market cooling. On the other hand, continuously positive ADP Weekly values indicate enduring job strength, supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the Richmond Fed's manufacturing activity index for December will allow for an assessment of the situation at the regional level: an increase in the index into positive territory signals an industrial revival in the Southeast U.S., while a decline will intensify concerns over a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Collectively, labor and regional activity indicators will help adjust forecasts for the Fed's upcoming meeting decisions, as the Federal Reserve considers labor market cooling in policy shifts.
- Market Reaction to Consumer and Labor Data: For the stock market, balance is essential: moderate weakening of consumer confidence and hiring may even please investors, as it reduces the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes. At the same time, overly weak figures could raise recession fears, impacting the stocks of cyclical companies (retail, auto, industry). Optimistic indicators (high consumer confidence, steady hiring) will short-term support stocks, especially those driven by domestic demand, but may trigger bond sell-offs due to fears of "overheating" in the economy. Thus, market participants will seek a middle ground in incoming statistics, reacting sectorally depending on the nature of surprises in the data.
Australia: RBA Minutes and Currency Market
- RBA Rhetoric and Rate Outlook: The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) December meeting will reveal the details of discussions amongst Australian regulators. Although the rate likely remained unchanged at the meeting, the tone of the minutes will showcase the balance of opinions: whether the risks of overheating were discussed or, instead, the focus shifted to slowing inflation and supporting growth. If the minutes indicate heightened concern about weak GDP and the labor market, markets may price in an increased likelihood of RBA rate cuts in 2026. More "hawkish" tones (emphasizing still-high inflation and willingness to raise rates if necessary) would be a surprise capable of strengthening the Australian dollar and prompting rises in Australian bond yields.
- Impact on AUD and Regional Assets: The Australian dollar (AUD) and local ASX 200 index will react to the contents of the minutes. A soft, "dovish" protocol (hinting at a prolonged pause or even potential easing of policy) typically weakens the AUD, which is positive for Australia's export-oriented sectors (mining, agriculture). Simultaneously, this may support the Australian stock market as low rates enhance stock valuations. However, if it emerges that RBA members maintain a strict stance, AUD will gain upward momentum, while stocks in Sydney may dip slightly due to the prospect of more expensive credit. Indirectly, signals from the RBA minutes also influence other commodity currencies — the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and Canadian dollar (CAD), setting the tone for movements in the currency market during the Asian session.
- Global Context of Central Banks: Investors from the CIS and Europe will also pay attention to the Australian protocol, as it will be released early morning Moscow time. Australia often serves as a "leading indicator" for monetary trends in developed countries, so a more dovish RBA policy may amplify expectations that other central banks (such as the Bank of Canada or even the U.S. Fed) will begin to ease by mid-2026. Thus, any significant revelations in the document will be factored in by global market participants when forming strategies for the next year, especially in the commodity currency segment and related industries.
Corporate Reporting: The U.S. and Other Markets
- U.S. (NYSE/NASDAQ): On December 23, no notable reports are expected from major U.S. public companies; however, several second-tier enterprises will present their financial results. Among them is **Limoneira Company (LMNR)** – a California agribusiness group growing citrus fruits; investors will be looking to see if the company managed to reduce losses amid stabilizing prices for lemons and avocados. Restaurant operator **Good Times Restaurants (GTIM)**, which owns regional burger chains, will also report — the market will closely watch sales dynamics at existing restaurants and the company's measures to maintain margins amid rising costs. Another release of the day is from **Digerati Technologies (DTGI)**, a small tech holding in cloud infrastructure: shareholders are interested in the results of the recent business reorganization and plans of the new management to achieve profitability. Although the scale of these issuers is small, their reports can locally impact narrow sectors (agriculture, food service, telecom) and serve as indicators of the health of small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S.
- Europe: On European exchanges, there is an information vacuum on Tuesday, with no companies from the Euro Stoxx 50 index planning to publish financial results on December 23. Ahead of Christmas, business activity in Europe is declining, and investors are shifting focus to external factors, primarily U.S. macro data and currency fluctuations. Some minor issuers may release reports or operational updates (e.g., certain developers or real estate investment funds in the UK and Germany), but they will not have a significant impact on the market. European trading venues will likely react to the overall global sentiment shaped by the U.S. and energy price dynamics.
- Asia: In the Asia-Pacific region, the period of mass corporate reporting has already concluded, and no significant publications from companies within the Nikkei 225 or MSCI Asia Pacific are expected on December 23. Most corporations in Japan reported for the half-year back in November, and major players will announce new financial results only post-New Year. Chinese and Asian markets on this day will mainly focus on external signals — U.S. statistics and currency/commodity dynamics. Thus, the Asian session will proceed relatively calmly in terms of corporate events, allowing participants to concentrate on macro news and political factors in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): In the Russian stock market, the end of December traditionally does not indulge investors with significant reports. The majority of issuers from the MOEX index already disclosed results for the first nine months of 2025 earlier in the fall, while the annual reports will only emerge in 2026. December 23 may bring some corporate news: several companies are holding board meetings before the holidays. In particular, a number of large domestic companies are considering interim dividends for the past quarters — any announcements regarding dividends (e.g., for the first nine months of 2025) can locally influence the respective issuer's shares. However, the overall information backdrop on the Moscow Exchange is tranquil, with the domestic market looking towards external markets and oil prices to determine the short-term trend.
Other Regions and Indices: An Investor's Perspective
- Euro Stoxx 50 and European Markets: In the absence of corporate drivers, European investors will focus on macroeconomic factors. Strong data from the U.S. (especially GDP and consumer confidence) could support the European banking and industrial sectors, indicating that demand for exports remains. Conversely, any signs of global economic slowdown (if U.S. GDP disappoints, for example) will cause a pivot to protective assets in Europe — bonds, stocks of utility companies and telecoms. The EUR/USD exchange rate is also in focus: continued strengthening of the euro against the backdrop of dovish signals from the Fed could pressure the shares of Eurozone exporters, while a stronger dollar would ease the position of European manufacturers. Overall, the exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and London on December 23 will move under the influence of external news, as the internal news flow is scarce.
- Nikkei 225 and Asian Indices: For Japanese and Asian markets, this Tuesday is more of a pause before year-end. The Nikkei 225 may react to changes in the yen's exchange rate: if U.S. data leads to a strengthening of the dollar, it benefits Japan's export-oriented corporations (automotive, electronics), and the Nikkei index will gain support. In the Chinese stock market and other Asian countries, investor sentiment will be shaped by a combination of factors: the RBA minutes set the tone for the Australian and regional banking sector, commodity prices (oil, metals) will affect resource companies, while the dynamics of the American Nasdaq could reflect on technology stocks in Asia. Overall, there are few significant local events, so Asian indices will serve as a "barometer" of global risk — growing risk appetite will push them up, while a risk-off approach due to weak data will pull stock prices down.
- Russian Market (MOEX): Domestic indices IMOEX and RTS, amidst a calm internal news backdrop, will orient themselves toward global trends and oil price dynamics. Any significant fluctuations in oil quotes, associated with the API report or demand expectations, will immediately reflect on oil and gas sector stocks, which have a substantial weight in the Moscow Exchange index. If Brent oil holds at high levels (e.g., around $80–85 per barrel) due to declining inventories and optimism regarding demand, this will support Russian energy blue chips and the ruble. Conversely, weakness in the commodity market will add pressure to Russian stocks. Additionally, external signals from the U.S. Fed and ECB (in the context of GDP and inflation data) may influence investor sentiment in Russia through the global risk appetite channel: an improved external backdrop will increase demand for risk assets, including Russian, while rising concerns will prompt players to reduce positions in emerging markets.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- U.S. GDP and Orders: The key factor of the day is the publication of U.S. GDP for Q3 2025. A stronger-than-expected economic growth (exceeding ~4%) may provoke a revision of Fed rate forecasts, causing simultaneous increases in bond yields and supporting cyclical stocks. Meanwhile, we keep an eye on durable goods orders: a robust increase will confirm the trend of recovering investment activity, while weakness in the indicator will heighten concerns for the industrial sector.
- Consumer Sentiment: The December consumer confidence index and accompanying data (retail sales, if available) will signal direction for consumer goods and services companies. Investors should assess whether households maintain willingness to spend under high living costs. Any signs of cooling consumer demand will be a caution signal regarding retail networks, auto dealers, and tourism companies, whereas an unexpected rise in optimism may boost their stocks.
- RBA Minutes and Currencies: Morning outcomes of the RBA meeting may set the tone for currency trading on Tuesday. If the minutes turn out to be softer than expected, one can anticipate a decline in AUD and NZD, which will reflect on commodity prices (through cheaper production) and currency pairs of emerging markets. For investors in global assets, the RBA's signal is yet another confirmation (or denial) of the onset of a global easing policy cycle. Additionally, consider the impact of the ruble's exchange rate: fluctuations in oil prices and general risk appetite, shaped by external events of the day, may sway the ruble, influencing the local debt and stock market.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: The combination of news on the day directly impacts the commodity segment. The API report late in the evening will provide a preliminary assessment of the U.S. oil market — a significant reduction in oil or gasoline inventories will support rising oil prices, while an unexpected rise in inventories could trigger a downward correction. For investors in the oil and gas sector, it is prudent to pre-define target price ranges and potential protective positions, considering that liquidity reduces before the Christmas holidays, and price fluctuations may be sharper than usual. Additionally, attention should be paid to industrial metals: no data from China is released on this day, so metals will predominantly react to U.S. manufacturing figures and overall risk appetite.
- Risk Management Ahead of Holidays: December 23 combines a dense flow of statistics with the approach of a low-liquidity holiday period. Investors are advised to exercise caution: volatility may increase due to fewer active participants. It is wise to pre-determine levels at which positions will be reassessed or hedged, use stop orders to protect profits, and avoid excessive leverage. As the trading day concludes, and essentially the whole year, it is rational to lock in results and balance the portfolio to meet the New Year's holidays without undue stress and with a thoughtful plan for January 2026.
