Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of December 22-26, 2025: LPR Rate in China, US GDP and Inflation, Macro Data from Europe and Russia, the Impact of Christmas and Short Trading Sessions on Global Markets
Weekly Overview for December 22-26, 2025: Key Events and Reports
The upcoming week will be shortened due to the holidays; however, investors will face several important events. The focus will be on the People's Bank of China's decision regarding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the final GDP estimate for the US for the third quarter, the PCE Price Index (a key inflation indicator in the US), as well as Catholic Christmas and a new trade agreement between the EAEU and Indonesia. The corporate earnings season is nearly concluded: no major reports from companies in the US, Europe, Asia, or Russia are expected, shifting focus to macro statistics and geo-economic news. One significant event will be the signing of a free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – a step that strengthens economic ties between Southeast Asia and post-Soviet countries. Macroeconomic data and central bank decisions may impact the dynamics of global stock indices – from the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 to Nikkei 225 and the Moscow Exchange Index – although market reactions may be muted given the low liquidity during the holiday period. Let’s take a closer look at the events of each day and their potential impact on market conditions.
Monday, December 22, 2025: LPR Rate in China and UK GDP
At the beginning of the week, attention is focused on Asian and European indicators. Early in the morning, China will announce its decision on the key Loan Prime Rate (LPR), setting the tone for financial conditions in the region. The UK will release final GDP data for the third quarter, providing an assessment of growth rates ahead of the year’s end. No significant corporate earnings reports are expected on this day, so market dynamics will depend on macroeconomic news. Additionally, news about the signing of a free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EAEU countries will influence the global agenda, highlighting the strengthening of international economic integration.
- 04:15 MSK – China: Decision on the LPR (Loan Prime Rate). The rate is expected to remain unchanged; any unexpected changes could impact the yuan, Chinese banking sector stocks, and set the tone for Asian markets.
- 10:00 MSK – UK: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate). Preliminary data indicated moderate economic growth; revisions could impact the pound exchange rate and FTSE 100 dynamics.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (for November). This indicator reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy; values near zero suggest moderate growth, while deviations may affect short-term investor sentiment.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: PCE Price Index. A key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve; a slowdown in price growth would bolster expectations of accommodative monetary policy, while rising inflation may raise concerns in bond and equity markets.
Investor takeaway: Monday starts without major upheavals – there are few economic events, and global markets will likely trade within a narrow range. The decision on rates in China will likely confirm the current course of monetary policy, without sparking sharp movements in Asian markets. The final GDP figure from the UK is unlikely to surprise investors, serving as a background indicator for the European market. The PCE inflation index in the US will be an important benchmark: moderate dynamics will support a positive mood, while unexpectedly high figures may increase volatility even under decreasing activity as the holidays approach. The news regarding the EAEU-Indonesian agreement is more strategic in nature and does not directly impact market prices in the short term, but underscores the trend toward strengthening trade ties in the Eurasian space.
Tuesday, December 23, 2025: US GDP and Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday will be the most information-rich day of the week in terms of macroeconomic statistics, especially in the US. Investors will receive a comprehensive block of data on the US economy: from labor market and industrial indicators to the final GDP growth report. In focus is the final GDP estimate for the US for Q3, which will confirm or adjust previous growth estimates, as well as data on durable goods orders and industrial production, reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the consumer confidence index for December will provide insight into household sentiment as the holiday approaches. Prior to the opening of main trading, the Asia-Pacific region will absorb signals from Australia following the publication of the RBA meeting minutes. With no major corporate reports expected, macroeconomic releases will determine market movement on Tuesday.
- 03:30 MSK – Australia: Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. This document will clarify the regulator's assessment of the economic situation and inflation; any hints at future rate changes may impact the Australian dollar and market sentiment.
- 16:15 MSK – USA: ADP Employment Change (weekly figure). An unofficial assessment of labor market dynamics in the US; stable employment conditions will calm investors, while rising jobless claims or declining employment may heighten concerns about economic slowdown.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Durable Goods Orders for November. A vital industrial indicator reflecting demand for durable goods (such as equipment and machinery). An increase in orders signals business confidence and supports industrial sector stocks, while a decrease indicates caution among companies regarding capital expenditures.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Housing Starts for November. This indicator reflects activity in the construction sector: an increase in new constructions indicates a healthy real estate market, while declines may be interpreted as signs of economic cooling or caution among builders.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate). Strong economic growth in the US (around +3% year-on-year) is expected to be confirmed. Any significant revision of GDP growth rates may alter market sentiment: stronger growth could stimulate risk appetite, while a lowered estimate may raise questions about the durability of the economic upswing.
- 17:15 MSK – USA: Industrial Production for November. The data will showcase the state of the manufacturing sector. Moderate growth in output indicates stability, while a decline in industrial activity may heighten recessionary concerns.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December. An indicator of US consumer sentiment ahead of the holidays: an increase in confidence will support retail stocks and the broader market, while a decrease may signal more cautious spending by households.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December. A regional leading indicator of manufacturing activity; strong values will bolster optimism in the manufacturing sector, while weak readings may indicate isolated issues in production.
- 00:30 MSK (already December 24) – USA: API Weekly Statistical Report on Oil Supplies. Unofficial data from the American Petroleum Institute on the change in crude oil inventories over the past week. A significant decline in supplies could push oil prices up, indicating high demand, while an increase could exert downward pressure on oil quotes.
Investor takeaway: Tuesday will see markets digest a large volume of economic information. Strong macro indicators from the US (for example, GDP growth above expectations or an increase in orders) may provide the market with new momentum and support the rise of stock indices, reinforcing confidence in the economy. Conversely, weak data—be it falling consumer confidence or declining industrial output—may lead to investor caution and a reallocation of assets into safe havens. RBA’s protocol early in the morning will set the tone for the Australian market and commodity currencies, but the main impact of the day will shift to the US session. Overall, the absence of corporate reports means that macroeconomic surprises will dictate sentiment: a positive tone in statistics will support risk appetite, while a string of disappointing indicators may trigger profit-taking before the extended holiday.
Wednesday, December 24, 2025: Bank of Japan Minutes and Jobless Claims (Christmas Eve)
On Wednesday, the world markets will be in Christmas Eve, leading to reduced trading activity. A number of markets, including Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, and Argentina, will be closed for the entire day, while in the US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, trading sessions will be shortened. Nevertheless, reports released that day have the potential to locally impact market dynamics: early in the morning, the Bank of Japan will publish minutes from its last meeting, providing insight into the regulator's sentiments, while during the US session, investors will monitor the weekly jobless statistics and oil inventory data. Additionally, important economic indicators for November are expected to be released in Russia. In thin market conditions, any reactions to news may be amplified by low liquidity; however, significant movements are unlikely due to the proximity of the holiday.
- 02:50 MSK – Japan: Minutes from the Bank of Japan meeting. The minutes will reveal details of discussions regarding monetary policy. Investors are looking for cues on potential changes to the ultra-accommodative stance of the BoJ; any signals regarding plans to adjust policy could be reflected in the yen's rate and dynamics of the Nikkei 225.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending December 20). A weekly indicator of the US labor market, published a day earlier than usual due to the holiday. A consistently low level of claims will confirm employment resilience and support confidence in the economy, while increasing claims may raise concerns about cooling in the labor market.
- 18:30 MSK – USA: Official EIA Data on Oil Supplies. Weekly statistics from the Energy Information Administration on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories. A sharp decline in supplies may strengthen oil prices, signaling high demand or reduced supply, while an increase in inventories could weaken the oil market. Volatility in energy markets is possible, though many traders have likely exited the markets on the eve of the holiday.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Industrial Production for November. This indicator reflects output in the Russian industry. Accelerating growth in industrial production will indicate economic revival towards the year's end, while weak results may heighten expectations for stimulus measures from the government and the Central Bank of Russia.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Consumer Inflation for November (CPI index). Release of the inflation level in Russia for the month; price dynamics are important for understanding the monetary policy course of the Central Bank of Russia. A slowdown in inflation will strengthen expectations for a policy easing (or rate maintenance), while unexpected price increases may provoke discussions about the need for tougher measures to curb inflationary pressure.
Investor takeaway: Wednesday is characterized by reduced activity and preparation for the holiday pause, but several signals will still hit the markets. The Bank of Japan's minutes may influence trading in Asia: any hints at policy changes could noticeably shift the yen's exchange rate and Japanese company stocks, although the BoJ typically takes a cautious approach. In the US, jobless and oil data will provide fresh insight into the state of the economy: sharp deterioration in indicators would concern market participants, but given the pre-holiday mood, most investors are likely to overlook minor fluctuations on this day. Russian statistical releases are important locally – they will help assess the health of the Russian economy at year’s end, but their impact on global markets is minimal. Overall, investors are advised to maintain caution: in thin markets, even small news can trigger disproportionate price movements, so the main strategy for the day will be to wait until the Christmas holidays conclude.
Thursday, December 25, 2025: Catholic Christmas (Global Markets Closed)
Thursday marks Catholic Christmas, and the vast majority of global financial markets are closed. Exchanges in the US, Europe (including the UK, Germany, France, and others), as well as several markets in Asia and Latin America, are closed for the holiday. No trading sessions are held on currency, stock, and commodity markets; no economic data or corporate reports are scheduled for release on this day. Investors worldwide take a pause, and trading activity is brought to a halt.
Investor takeaway: The complete cessation of trading on December 25 means no market movements or news. Investors can use this day to step back from market conditions and reevaluate their investment strategies outside of market hustle. It is advisable not to take any actions – all key decisions should be postponed until markets resume operations. The Christmas break traditionally serves as a time of low volatility, so no changes in portfolios are expected on this day.
Friday, December 26, 2025: Boxing Day – Holiday in Europe, Calm Markets
On Friday, global markets gradually return to work following Christmas; however, in several countries, it remains a holiday. December 26 is Boxing Day in the UK, Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and others), and many European nations, meaning that exchanges there remain closed. American markets, along with some exchanges in Asia, operate normally, but overall activity is still subdued. No new significant macroeconomic publications or corporate events are scheduled, and investors in the open jurisdictions are trading based on previously received information. In conditions of a reduced number of participants, minor price fluctuations may occur, but without strong fundamental drivers.
Investor takeaway: The final day of the week passes relatively calmly and inertly. The reduction in the number of active platforms leads to low trading volumes and neutral dynamics of major indices. In the US, where markets are open, only local movements may occur under the influence of remaining macro data from the week – for instance, investors may continue to react to GDP figures or consumer confidence published on Tuesday. However, overall, the Friday session will have a technical nature: major players have already locked in results before the holidays, and few are inclined to open new positions. Investors should focus on maintaining portfolio balance ahead of year-end: this current pause is an opportune moment to evaluate year-end results and prepare for January volatility. After the holidays, global markets will enter the final week of the year, where movements may occur against the backdrop of year-end book closings, so the calmness of December 26 can be viewed as the “calm before the storm” ahead of the final days of 2025.
