Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Tuesday, December 30, 2025: Russia's PMI, FOMC Minutes, US Case-Shiller Index, Oil and Global Markets. Investor Overview.
Financial markets towards the year's end remain sensitive to macroeconomic news and corporate releases. On Tuesday, the focus shifts to the Russian economy and monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia will set exchange rates for the New Year's holidays), as well as overseas statistics: the PMI for the services sector and composite PMI in Russia (12:00 MSK), the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the US (17:00 MSK), and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting (22:00 MSK). Additionally, markets will await the API report on US crude oil inventories (00:30 MSK, January 1). The corporate story of the day will be supplemented by reports from individual companies, while the annual reporting calendar remains nearly empty.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 09:00 — Russia: Services PMI (December) and Composite PMI (December).
- 17:00 — US: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October).
- 22:00 — US: Publication of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
- 00:30 (January 1) — US: API report on crude oil inventories (weekly).
Central Bank of Russia: Exchange Rates
On the last working day of the year, the Bank of Russia will halt the setting of exchange rates that will apply throughout the holiday week. A meeting is scheduled for December 30, after which the central bank will fix the official exchange rates for the US dollar, euro, and yuan for the period from December 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026. This step ensures relative stability for the ruble during the holidays, shifting the primary risks to global factors: oil price dynamics and external economic conditions.
Services PMI Index (Russia)
The publication of the services sector and composite PMI indices will provide insights into the current state of the Russian economy. Preliminary data indicate a slowdown: the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in December (indicating a contraction in production). In a negative industrial environment, the services sector may only exhibit weak growth or stagnation. Investors will monitor these indicators closely: a recovery in service activity typically supports the stock market and the ruble, while a prolonged downturn could increase pressure on corporate profits.
US Home Price Index (Case-Shiller)
At 17:00 MSK, the October figures from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller for home prices will be released. Continued slowing in growth is expected, with an annual increase projected to be around +1.1% (similar to the previous month). In September, the index showed +1.6% (forecast +1.4%), while October may see approximately +1.1% year-on-year. The deceleration in home price growth reduces mortgage burdens and alleviates inflationary pressures. For markets, this is a signal: moderate growth rates in real estate ease monetary policy and support demand in other sectors of the economy.
FOMC Minutes
At 22:00 MSK, the minutes from the FOMC's December meeting will be published. Analysts expect the plan for gradual rate cuts in 2026 to be reaffirmed. The text regarding inflation prospects and timelines for easing will be crucial. Market participants intend to closely scrutinize the minutes for new signals about the pace of tightening or easing policy. Market reactions could be active, as any nontrivial comments regarding inflation and employment will define the dynamics of the dollar and bond yields.
Oil Inventories (API)
The API report on oil inventories (00:30 MSK) often sets short-term price dynamics for oil. According to the API, for the week ending December 19, US oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels after a drop of 9.3 million the previous week. The increase in inventories indicates a slowdown in demand. Investors will closely compare these figures with the official EIA report: additional inventory builds could depress oil prices, while an unexpected reduction may support prices. Long-term trends are influenced by OPEC+ decisions and global demand, so any signals from the commodities market should be factored into trading strategies.
Corporate Reports
- USA – OBOOK Holdings (OWLS) – a subsidiary of OwlTing (blockchain platform). After market close on December 30, OBOOK will announce its financial results for the first half of 2025 and hold a conference call (17:00 Eastern). Investors will assess the company's revenue and profitability amidst global trends in the technology sector.
- Asia (Hong Kong) – Global Strategic Group Limited (8590.HK) and Capital VC Ltd (2324.HK) will present annual reports. These companies operate in electronics and finance. Their results may provide insights into the state of the technology and finance sectors in Hong Kong, although their impact on global indices is limited.
- Europe – Due to the Christmas holidays, the corporate calendar is sparse. Major European companies have either reported earlier or will do so in January; therefore, no significant surprises in earnings are expected.
- Russia – There are virtually no reports on Tuesday: major issuers have already reported and are preparing for the annual period. The focus remains on dividend and operational news, while key indices are reacting to macro data and external factors.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): European exchanges are experiencing a lull. There is a lack of fresh economic data, and trading is subdued. Investors are looking at global factors (exchange rates, oil, and events in Asia), while local factors (Eurozone GDP, ECB) are taking a backseat.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market may be partially closed or on a shortened schedule due to the holidays. Focus is on external trends: yen exchange rates and commodity prices. Domestic releases are not significant in this short trading day.
- Russia (MOEX): Activity on the Moscow Exchange is minimal. The focus is on oil prices and the Central Bank of Russia's policies (fixed rates). Energy companies are sensitive to rising oil prices, while the financial sector reflects the seasonal conservativeness of banking operations.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- FOMC and Inflation: Case-Shiller and the FOMC minutes will clarify the picture regarding inflation and the interest rate trajectory. Low home price growth (October +1.1% year-on-year) alleviates inflationary pressure, allowing the FOMC to ease policy in 2026.
- Ruble and Central Bank of Russia: The fixed rates until January 13 mitigate short-term currency risks. The focus is on oil prices, as their rise supports the ruble and the stocks of oil companies; a fall in oil may weaken the national currency and pressure the budget.
- Commodities: Reports from API and EIA on oil inventories could trigger short-term fluctuations. Disappointing inventory data could pull prices down, while a decrease in inventories could unexpectedly boost oil prices. It is also essential to consider news related to precious metals (such as China's silver exports), as they could provide additional momentum for commodity markets.
- Liquidity: The year's end is characterized by low trading activity. Even small news could lead to significant volatility. Investors should exercise caution, diversify their portfolios, and account for the risk of sudden movements as the year concludes.
