Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy for Tuesday, December 30, 2025. Oil, gas, electricity, renewables, coal, petroleum products, and key global energy events for investors and market participants.
By the end of 2025, the global energy sector finds itself at the crossroads of divergent trends. The oil market continues to face pressure from oversupply and moderate demand, which limits price increases and could lead to a potential decline in quotations in 2026. In the gas sector, European countries have filled underground storage almost to maximum capacity ahead of winter, stabilizing prices, while the expansion of LNG projects is set to provide new momentum for the market next year. Simultaneously, a surge in investments in renewable energy is changing the demand balance—wind energy and solar generation are breaking new records, while global coal consumption remains significant, particularly in Asia. Global politics, including increasing sanctions pressure and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, maintains high uncertainty in commodity markets, as major importers (China, India) actively increase energy resource purchases, sustaining global demand. Thus, the themes of oil surplus and the transition to "clean" energy sources remain critical for investors and energy market participants worldwide.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand
The global oil market is still witnessing a trend of oversaturation. Recent OPEC+ decisions (agreed upon in November) hold production quotas at previous levels; however, since spring 2025, the alliance has increased output by about 2.7 million barrels per day, attempting to regain market share. The increase in supply occurs amidst modest demand growth—the IEA estimates global oil consumption growth for 2025 at less than +0.7 million barrels per day, which is significantly lower than in previous years. As a result, the long-term balance is shifting towards overproduction.
- OPEC+ Output Increase. Most OPEC+ participants have maintained or increased production at this time of year. The absence of new cuts is expected to result in further growth of global oil and petroleum product inventories.
- Slowing Demand. Global economic slowdown and last year's high prices are suppressing oil demand. Simultaneously, the transition to electric vehicles is accelerating, and energy efficiency is increasing, which reduces the pace of consumption growth.
- Geopolitical Factors. Increased sanctions against Russia (including new US restrictions on the Russian oil sector) partially limit hydrocarbon exports and cause temporary price spikes. At the same time, the stagnation of peace negotiations between the US and Russia keeps uncertainty alive. The conflict in Ukraine continues to pose supply disruption risks and impacts investment sentiment.
As a result, Brent crude oil is maintaining around $60–62 per barrel (average for December 2025), which is approximately 15–20% lower than a year ago. Many analysts predict further price declines: if current trends persist, the average Brent price in 2026 could be around $55–60/barrel. Diesel remains a scarce commodity: due to attacks on refineries and export restrictions on Russian petroleum products, diesel futures in Europe have shown sustained margin growth, although the overall surplus of crude oil is hindering significant fuel price increases.
Gas Market: High Stocks and Diversification of Supplies
The European gas sector is preparing for winter with record stock levels. As of the end of December, the continent’s underground storage is filled to 85–90% capacity, significantly exceeding average levels of previous years. This has been made possible by unprecedented LNG imports, compensating for reduced transit from Russia. Consequently, spot prices in Europe have remained moderate: TTF futures are holding around €30/MWh (≈ $9–10 per 1,000 m³), which is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022–2024.
- Confident Growth of LNG Supplies. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks, Europe is diversifying supplies: the US and the Persian Gulf have increased LNG exports, and Azerbaijan has ramped up throughput via the "Southern Corridor." Together, these measures have enabled storage filling and eased winter demand.
- Price Stability. Due to high stocks and moderate demand, gas prices in Europe have remained below last year’s levels. The reduction in risk premium is linked to hopes for diplomatic achievements (a potential peace agreement on Ukraine), which eases the geopolitical component.
- Divergent Trends in Asia and the US. In Asia, LNG prices have declined to multi-week lows (around $10–11/MMBtu), driven by record global terminal overcapacity and slowing industrial demand in China and South Korea. Conversely, in the US, gas prices have remained above $4/MMBtu due to cold weather and record LNG exports, providing additional demand.
Thus, the gas market remains balanced: Europe approached winter with a reliable supply, and strong exports from the US support global demand. However, the upcoming "LNG boom" (planned export growth of 50% by 2030) promises to intensify competition and dilute producer margins in the coming years.
Renewable Energy and the Electricity Sector
The year 2025 marked a significant breakthrough in the "green" energy sector. By mid-year, global combined generation from wind and solar energy surpassed that of coal-fired power plants for the first time. This shift was fueled by strong growth in solar generation (an increase of ~30% by the first half of 2024) and moderate but steady growth in wind energy. Major markets—China, India, and the US—are setting records for renewable energy capacity installation.
- Record Growth of Renewables. China has added more renewable generation to its grid than the rest of the world combined, leading to a decline in fossil fuel share within its energy mix along with India. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a more than double increase in net generation by 2030, with solar panels holding a dominant share.
- Declining Role of Coal. Despite the influx of renewables, there remains high demand for coal in Asian countries (India, China), which continues to suppress global consumption decline thus far. However, in the US and Europe, the share of coal generation is decreasing: recent weather fluctuations led to a temporary rise in gas and coal use, but the long-term trend will continue downwards.
- Energy Innovations. Oil and gas companies are actively developing low-carbon projects. For example, TotalEnergies has plans to build a synthetic methane production plant in the US (in partnership with Japanese firms) and projects focused on "green" hydrogen (SinoChem in China, with investments in the billions of dollars). Large-scale energy storage projects are emerging, and the network of EV charging points is expanding, supporting the electrification of transport.
The electricity and renewable sectors expect rapid demand growth: global electricity demand is rising by 4% annually, driven by the growth of data centers and infrastructure. In the coming months, countries are balancing between the speed of the "green" transition and ensuring energy security, but the continued trend of expanding solar and wind capacities inevitably restrains long-term fossil fuel demand growth.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Remains High
Despite the influx of renewable energy, global coal consumption remains significant, especially in developing regions. China and India—the leading coal consumers—continue to utilize it intensively for power generation. In the US, coal production has risen in 2025 due to increasing gas prices and heightened electricity demand.
- Production Stabilization. Major coal exporters (Australia, Indonesia, Russia) are maintaining high-level production. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the global coal market is currently characterized by moderate prices and sufficient liquidity.
- Imports in China and India. In China, coal imports fell nearly 20% in 2025 compared to the previous year due to increased domestic capacity and stockpiling (price factors). In India, however, demand continues to grow, stimulating purchases and investments in the coal sector.
- The Role of Transitional Fuel. Coal remains a cornerstone of the energy balance for many countries. However, as the share of coal generation declines in developed economies and affordable alternative energy sources emerge, it is losing some of its demand. Support comes from environmental regulations and competition from gas and renewables.
Thus, the coal market continues to receive support from Asian demand, but long-term prospects remain uncertain due to the energy transition. Investors are watching the balance of supply and demand: for now, Chinese prices have stabilized at a low level, constraining import volumes.
Geopolitics and Energy Security
International politics continues to have a strong influence on energy markets. The tightening of sanctions by the West against Russia is aimed at the oil and gas sector: at the end of December, the US imposed additional restrictions on the largest Russian oil companies. Moscow has announced a redirection of supplies "to friendly countries" and readiness to take countermeasures.
- Ukrainian Conflict. Efforts by the US and allies to coordinate a peace plan have made no breakthroughs, maintaining the sanctions regime against Russia. This holds back part of the exports from the Russian Federation and impacts long-term plans for new project investments.
- Saudi Arabia and OPEC. Despite calls for market balancing, Saudi Arabia in cooperation with the UAE has yet to announce additional production cuts. Their strategic alliances are strengthening, and the prospects for new agreements remain ambiguous.
- Energy Policies of Other Countries. The US is discussing options for legalizing oil extraction on its territory to reduce prices ahead of elections. China and the EU are accelerating clean energy programs, announcing new electrification projects. Free trade agreements (including energy resource provisions) and environmental standards play an important role, shaping long-term demand.
Overall, high geopolitical tensions maintain volatility in commodity markets. Investors are closely monitoring changes in sanction policies and diplomatic signals (e.g., statements of support for China and negotiations between the US and Russia), as these could either exacerbate a global surplus (with the lifting of sanctions and increased supply) or heighten market tensions.
Asia: China and India Increase Purchases and Domestic Production
Key Asian players continue to strengthen their positions in the energy sector. China remains the largest importer of oil and gas, purchasing hydrocarbons at attractive prices. In 2025, benefiting from discounts, Russia increased its Urals oil supplies to China and is also expanding gas exports. Meanwhile, Beijing is boosting its domestic production of oil and particularly gas (shale gas, coalbed methane), striving to reduce dependence on imports.
- Indian Demand. India is actively importing both oil and petroleum products from Russia and the global market. According to estimates, it is gradually changing suppliers but is not currently able to sharply abandon Russian energy sources without harming the economy. Simultaneously, New Delhi is investing in oil and gas exploration and production, including shale projects.
- Chinese Strategies. Beijing has not imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports and is ensuring its resource security through state-managed strategic stockpiling. The electric vehicle transition program is in full swing, but it currently lags behind India’s rapidly growing fleet due to the fast growth of the Chinese economy.
- Regional Role. China and India are the main drivers of global hydrocarbon demand. Their energy source decisions (e.g., plans for "green" hydrogen, expanding renewable energy networks, and local fuel extraction) influence global trends. Both markets are also major buyers of coal and LNG from various world regions.
As a result, Asia provides fundamental support to global demand: all else being equal, increased purchases from Russia and competitive local projects ensure Chinese-Indian demand, balancing some of the excess supply from other regions. It is crucial for investors to consider that changes in the policies of these countries (e.g., a withdrawal from Russian supplies or a deepening energy transition) could rapidly alter demand and supply balances.
Conclusions and Forecasts
The outcomes of December 2025 show that the global energy sector is on the brink of a turning point. In the coming months, experts predict a continued moderate decline in oil prices (due to stock increases) and the emergence of a weak positive trend in petroleum products due to diesel shortages. The gas market may remain divergent: Europe has benefited from ample stocks and reduced prices, while Asia awaits more LNG supplies. Meanwhile, the energy transition and geopolitics will play crucial roles: investors and companies need to prepare for possible volatility spikes depending on the success of "clean" projects and diplomatic processes.
