Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on December 22, 2025: PBoC Rate Decision, UK GDP, Hong Kong Inflation, and Company Reports from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Monday marks the beginning of a shortened pre-holiday week in global markets. The information agenda is relatively moderate: investors are focused on the monetary policy decision of the People's Bank of China and the final data on the UK economy. The Asian session is reacting to the interest rate decision in China and the latest inflation figures from Hong Kong, while Europe is focusing on the revised UK GDP for Q3. In the US, macro statistics are limited to secondary indicators, and activity in stock markets may remain subdued ahead of the release of more significant data on Tuesday. Investors from the CIS should consider the low market liquidity ahead of the holidays and the potential increase in volatility due to unexpected news.
Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)
- 01:15 – China: PBoC decision on the benchmark lending rate (LPR).
- 08:30 – Hong Kong: Consumer Price Index (CPI, November).
- 10:00 – United Kingdom: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate); current account balance (Q3).
- 12:00 – Spain: Trade balance for October.
- 13:00 – Ireland, Finland: Producer Price Index (November).
- 16:30 – Canada: Raw Materials Price Index (November).
- 16:30 – USA: National Activity Index by Chicago Fed (November).
- 17:00 – Mexico: Producer Price Index (PPI, November).
Asia: PBoC Rate and Inflation
- PBoC (China): The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain the benchmark lending rate at 3.00%. The pause in the monetary easing cycle is attributed to signs of economic stabilization and moderate inflation in China. Any unexpected change in the rate or comments from the regulator could impact sentiment in Asian markets: a rate cut would support equities and commodities, while maintaining the status quo is already priced in.
- Hong Kong (CPI): Consumer inflation in Hong Kong for November will signal the state of demand in one of Asia's financial hubs. Forecasts suggest a moderate price increase in the range of 2-3% year-on-year, reflecting stable household spending. A slowdown in the CPI index may indicate reduced price pressure and provide monetary authorities with room to support the economy, while a rise in inflation could argue for caution in monetary policy.
Europe: Final UK GDP Data
- UK (GDP Q3): The final estimate for GDP growth in Q3 2025 has been released. According to preliminary data, the UK economy grew by only +0.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating stagnation amid post-pandemic slowdown and the effects of the Bank of England's rate hikes. Confirmation of weak growth or downward revision may bolster expectations for a softer policy from the regulator in 2026 and put pressure on the pound. Conversely, if the revision shows stronger growth, it could support sterling and market sentiment in UK equities.
- Current Account Balance: Concurrently, the UK balance of payments for Q3 is being released. A persistent current account deficit highlights the pound's vulnerability—a high deficit (relative to GDP) signifies the economy's dependency on external investments. Investors will assess whether the deficit has narrowed amid a revival in exports and tourism. A lower deficit would support GBP, whereas an expanding imbalance could weaken the currency's position.
- Other European Statistics: Spain's trade balance for October will reflect export dynamics amid a slowdown in the Eurozone. Additionally, the release of producer price indices in Ireland and Finland will provide insights into cost trends across different parts of Europe. Overall, these figures are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, but they will serve as a backdrop for assessing inflationary processes in the EU.
USA: Indicators Amid Pre-Christmas Calm
- Chicago Fed Activity Index: The composite Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI) for November reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy across 85 statistical indicators. In the previous month, the NAI hovered around the zero mark, signaling medium-term growth rates. If the index significantly dips into negative territory, it may indicate an emerging slowdown in the US economy at year-end. However, markets are likely to react cautiously, as this indicator has limited influence compared to upcoming publications on Tuesday.
- US Market: American investors enter the session without major reports or first-tier data. During the pre-Christmas period, low volatility and reduced trading volumes are likely. Market participants will focus on external signals—commodity price dynamics, news from China and Europe—as well as positioning ahead of significant releases the following day (such as US GDP statistics and durable goods orders on Tuesday). Individual corporate news and technical factors may remain in focus, but no strong drivers for unilateral index movements are anticipated for the day.
Corporate Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO)
- AAR Corp (AIR) – an American aircraft maintenance corporation. Investors are awaiting comments on demand for aviation development and maintenance: an increase in orders from airlines and the military sector could push shares higher. Management forecasts on margin amid rising costs and interest rates will also be crucial.
- Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a Japanese clothing retail chain (retail, approximately $5 billion in market capitalization). The company will report for Q3 of the 2026 financial year. Key metrics include comparable sales (LFL) in the retail network, revenue dynamics amid shifting consumer demand in Japan, as well as margin trends in light of currency fluctuations and import costs. Results from Shimamura will signal the state of the consumer sector in Japan as the year concludes.
Corporate Reporting: After Market Close (AMC)
- No significant releases are scheduled after the main session. The corporate calendar in the US for this day is practically empty, as major companies from the S&P 500 indices reported earlier. Investors do not expect significant surprises from public companies on Monday evening, which contributes to a relatively calm news background.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- S&P 500 (USA): There are no quarterly reports from well-known issuers in the S&P 500 index on December 22. Many market leaders (FedEx, Nike, Oracle, etc.) reported in the previous week; hence, participants’ focus shifts to macroeconomic factors. The S&P 500's dynamics on this Monday will be shaped more by external background—situations in China and Europe—and overall risk appetite ahead of the holidays, rather than corporate news.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No financial reports are scheduled among Eurozone blue chips on Monday. European markets are focused on data from the UK and the overall state of the EU economy. As the year concludes, investors assess macro statistics (such as Spain's trade balance) and monetary signals, forming movements in sector indices. The absence of major corporate events means that external factors (EUR/GBP exchange rates, oil prices) may have a greater impact on sentiment within the Euro Stoxx 50.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese index continues to report results from companies with non-standard fiscal years. Attention is on releases from retailers and the manufacturing sector. Notably, one of the day’s significant reports will come from the Shimamura store chain, reflecting consumer activity in Japan. Overall, market activity in Japan is cooling towards the end of the year, with investors analyzing earlier Q3 reports in preparation for a new season in January.
- MOEX (Russia): The corporate reporting season on the Moscow Exchange is effectively over; there are no large public companies releasing financial results on December 22. Some issuers are holding dividend meetings and closing shareholder registries (e.g., **Polus**, **Ozon**, **Diasoft** – the last day for dividends), but these events are already priced in and do not significantly impact index dynamics. The Russian market in these days is likely to follow external cues and commodity prices, with almost no internal reporting drivers.
Day’s Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- China's Monetary Policy: The decision of the People's Bank of China regarding the LPR is the main factor for the morning. Its outcomes will determine the mood of the Asian session and could reflect on commodity markets. Investors should monitor the reaction of the yuan and Australian dollar as risk appetite indicators in emerging markets after the PBoC's announcement.
- UK Indicators: Final data on UK GDP and accompanying reports (current account balance, investments) will provide important benchmarks regarding the state of the economy before the holidays. Any deviations from expectations could affect the sterling’s exchange rate and sentiment in European markets—especially in the banking and consumer sectors of the UK.
- Thin Market Before Holidays: The pre-Christmas week is characterized by reduced liquidity as many participants take a pause. In such conditions, even single large orders or news can lead to disproportionately sharp price movements. Investors are advised to exercise caution: set limit orders, avoid excessive risks, and be prepared for short-term volatility spikes in a thin market.
- Absence of Corporate Drivers: The sparse corporate reporting calendar means that market fluctuations on this day will primarily be driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Investors may use this pause to review their portfolios ahead of the new reporting season in January while paying attention to the fundamental metrics of companies without the pressure of fresh quarterly results.
- Preparation for Key Events of the Week: Although Monday is relatively calm, significant data from the US (the second estimate of Q3 GDP, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index) are set to be released on Tuesday, along with the RBA meeting minutes from Asia. Investors should plan their strategies in advance of this information flow to swiftly respond to possible macro background changes. Given the shortened sessions on December 24 and the holiday on December 25 at many exchanges, risk management and position balancing at the beginning of the week is especially relevant.
