Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, July 31, 2026 - Bank of Japan Decision, Eurozone Inflation, Reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Norilsk Nickel
Friday, July 31, 2026, concludes one of the busiest weeks in the summer business calendar. Behind us are the US Federal Reserve's meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the first estimate of US GDP for Q2, and reports from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The final note of the week is equally significant: investors are looking forward to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, preliminary Eurozone inflation data for July, business activity indexes from China, as well as quarterly reports from oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. On the Russian market, the focus is on Norilsk Nickel’s half-year financial results under IFRS. The last trading day of the month traditionally involves portfolio rebalancing, increasing volatility in global stock markets.
Key Events of the Day: Brief Overview
- Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, updated forecast report, and press conference by Kazuo Ueda.
- Preliminary estimate of consumer inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone for July.
- Official business activity indexes (PMI) for China for July.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2, Chicago PMI, and final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in the US.
- Q2 reports: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, Eaton, Sony Group, Moderna, and others.
- Publication of consolidated financial results of Norilsk Nickel under IFRS for the first half of 2026.
Bank of Japan: Rate, Forecasts, and Yen at 40-Year Lows
The main macro event of Friday is the outcome of the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan. The consensus suggests that the key interest rate will be maintained at 1% per annum, but the intrigue lies in the details: alongside the decision, the regulator will publish its quarterly forecast report, while Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference. The yen is currently near 40-year lows, around 163-164 per dollar, which increases pressure on the regulator and raises the risks of currency interventions. Any hint of accelerating the rate hike cycle could trigger a strengthening of the yen, a retreat in global carry trades, and a correction of the Nikkei 225 index, which is sensitive to currency factors due to the high proportion of exporters.
Eurozone Inflation: Testing ECB Course
At 12:00 Moscow time, Eurostat will present the preliminary estimate of consumer price growth for July. Following a decline in annual inflation to 2.8% in June, economists expect a rebound to around 2.9-3.0% amid rising energy prices due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Core inflation is forecasted to remain close to 2.4%. This publication will be a key argument in the discussion about a potential rate hike by the ECB at its meeting on September 10 — the market is already pricing in a high probability of tightening. Stronger data would support the euro but exert pressure on Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX indexes.
US Statistics: Labor Costs and Consumer Sentiment
The American calendar on Friday is notably lighter than previous days, but it won't go unnoticed:
- Employment Cost Index for Q2 - a key indicator for the Fed measuring wage pressure on inflation.
- Chicago PMI for July - a leading indicator ahead of the ISM release in early August.
- The final estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, including household inflation expectations.
Following the Fed's decision to maintain rates and the release of PCE deflator data the day before, these releases will clarify the trajectory of monetary policy for the fall amid inflation still exceeding the target of 2%.
China: PMI Indices Set the Tone for Commodity Markets
In the morning, official business activity indexes for July will be released from China - in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Following the recent Politburo meeting outlining measures to support domestic demand, investors will be looking for confirmation of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy. The PMI data directly impacts oil prices, industrial metals, and shares of commodity companies - from the mining sector in Europe to Russian exporters.
ExxonMobil and Chevron: Oil Giants’ Day on Wall Street
Before the US markets open, quarterly results from ExxonMobil and Chevron will be announced. ExxonMobil has already guided the market, with Q2 profit potentially around $5 billion higher than the previous quarter due to soaring oil prices (the average Brent price for the quarter was around $96.7 per barrel, +23% compared to Q1) and a recovery in refining margins. Investors will assess the resilience of the $20 billion annual share buyback program and the dividend history, which boasts 43 years of continuous increases. For Chevron, the focus will be on the integration of Hess assets, production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, as well as its ability to generate free cash flow amid volatile commodity prices.
Other Reports in the US: Pharma, Consumer Sector, and Industry
In addition to the oil majors, several other companies will report before the market opens:
- AbbVie - sales dynamics for the immunology portfolio Skyrizi and Rinvoq;
- Linde - a barometer of global industry health through demand for technical gases;
- Colgate-Palmolive - pricing strategies and organic growth in the consumer segment;
- Eaton - orders related to electrification and data center construction;
- Dominion Energy, Cameco, Cboe Global Markets, T. Rowe Price, Moderna, AutoNation - a broad spectrum from energy to finance sectors.
Overall, the earnings season is shaping up strongly: according to FactSet, S&P 500 companies' profits in Q2 rose nearly 25% year-on-year — the second consecutive quarter with growth above 20%.
Asia and Europe: Sony and the End of the Peak Week
In Asia, the key corporate publication will be from Sony Group - investors will evaluate results from the gaming, music, and semiconductor segments, as well as the effect of a weak yen on the exporter’s revenues. In Europe, the peak of the season occurred in the middle of the week, with reports from heavyweights such as EssilorLuxottica, GSK, Rio Tinto, and others; on Friday, attention will shift to macro statistics and the final weekly dynamics of the Euro Stoxx 50 against the backdrop of the inflation report.
The Russian Market: Norilsk Nickel and a Wave of Half-Year Reports
On the Moscow Exchange, Norilsk Nickel will publish its consolidated financial results under IFRS for the first half of 2026 on July 31. The market will assess the impact of palladium, nickel, and copper prices, capital expenditure dynamics, and the company's debt burden — these factors are crucial for the prospects of returning to dividend payments. Additionally, the end of the month traditionally brings a wave of half-year reports under RAS from a wide array of issuers in the MOEX index, while investors continue to respond to results from Sberbank, Yandex, VTB, and Ozon, which were released in the last days of July.
What Investors Should Focus on July 31, 2026
The last trading day of July brings together several risk factors and opportunities. The day's priorities are as follows:
- Bank of Japan's Rhetoric. Even with the rate being maintained, strong signals from Ueda could lead to a sharp strengthening of the yen and a global unwinding of carry trades — with implications for emerging market currencies and risk assets.
- Eurozone Inflation. A rebound above 3% would heighten expectations for a September ECB rate hike and could pressure European stocks and bonds.
- Reports from ExxonMobil and Chevron. Management’s comments on oil prices, drilling activity, and buybacks will set the tone for the entire energy sector, including Russian oil companies.
- China's PMI. Weak data would signal risk for commodity currencies, metals, and exporters; strong data could support global risk appetite.
- End of Month Effect. Rebalancing by large funds may amplify movements in both directions, so heightened volatility could be seen in the last hour of trading, unrelated to fundamental news.
The combination of central bank decisions, inflation statistics, and commodity giants reports makes July 31 a day where risk management discipline is more critical than chasing short-term returns. A measured approach, currency and sector diversification, and attention to company forecasts for the second half of the year will help investors navigate the month-end without unnecessary losses.
