Global Oil & Gas and Energy Sector News as of February 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Refineries. Key Events in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the oil and gas sector as of February 1, 2026, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants with their magnitude and mixed signals. Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again: the United States is intensifying sanctions in the energy sector, while conflict risks in the Middle East are escalating, creating uncertainty and driving oil prices up to multi-month highs. At the same time, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, which experienced a significant drop in 2025, have partially recovered but remain at moderate levels historically — the market still faces an oversupply with restrained demand, and the OPEC+ alliance maintains control over production. The European gas market is confidently navigating the winter season: record gas storage levels and mild weather in January are keeping prices low, ensuring comfort for consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to gain momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following an autumn spike in fuel prices, authorities are maintaining strict measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Trigger Price Increase
Global oil prices noticeably increased last week, reaching their highest levels in the last six months. However, overall oil prices remain relatively restrained due to fundamental market factors. The North Sea Brent blend is stabilizing around $70–72 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $64–66. Current levels are still 10–15% lower than a year ago and significantly below the peak values of the energy crisis of 2022–2023.
- OPEC+ Supply: Major oil exporters are maintaining discipline in their supplies. In 2025, the OPEC+ alliance sequentially increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day (from April to December) as past restrictions were eased, leading to the formation of a surplus. However, at the beginning of 2026, considering the seasonally low winter demand, OPEC+ countries took a pause on further increases. At a meeting in January, participants unanimously decided to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026, to avoid a new market oversaturation. If necessary, the alliance indicates readiness to cut production again. This preventive approach keeps oil within a narrow price corridor and reduces volatility.
- Demand Slowdown: Global oil consumption growth has significantly weakened. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand increased in 2025 by only ~0.7 million barrels per day (compared to +2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC estimates demand growth in 2025 at approximately +1.2 million b/d. Reasons include a slowdown in the global economy and the effect of previous high prices, which stimulated energy conservation. Additionally, China contributed to the demand restraint: in the second half of 2025, growth in industrial production and fuel consumption in China fell below expectations, with industrial production growth reaching the lowest rate in 15 months.
- Geopolitical Factors: Oil markets are simultaneously affected by opposing political forces. On one hand, the escalation of sanctions has intensified restrictions on energy resource trade. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the US implemented the strictest sanctions in years against the Russian oil and gas sector (including a ban on transactions with several major companies), forcing some Asian buyers to reduce imports of Russian oil. Furthermore, Washington has effectively announced the potential for imposing high tariffs (up to 500%) on imports to the US from countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas—this initiative aims to deprive Moscow of export revenues funding the conflict in Ukraine. Simultaneously, risks of disruptions in the Middle East have increased: in January, reports emerged that the US is considering a military strike against Iran regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Against this backdrop of tension, investors are embedding a higher risk premium into oil prices. On the other hand, periodic signals of a potential ceasefire in Eastern Europe (currently without tangible results) create expectations that sooner or later sanctions against Russian exports may be eased, allowing the full volume of Russian oil back into the market—this factor weighs on bearish sentiment. For now, the cumulative impact of all factors maintains a moderate oversupply of oil, keeping the market in a slight surplus.
As a result, oil prices remain in a relatively narrow range, lacking sustainable momentum for either further growth or sharp declines. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events—from OPEC+ decisions (the next ministerial meeting is scheduled for February 1, where an extension of current production policies is expected) to geopolitical developments—any of which could alter the risk balance for oil prices.
Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter Confidently, Prices Remain Low
The gas market is focused on the successful passage of winter by European countries. So far, the season is favorable for Europe: January was relatively mild, hence gas withdrawals from storage are occurring at moderate rates. By early February, underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU are approximately 60% full, significantly above the average for this time of year and ensuring a high level of resilience in the supply system.
Thanks to this, alongside stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from alternative sources, prices in the European market remain low. The benchmark TTF index fluctuates around €25–30 per MWh—significantly lower than the peak values seen during the energy crisis two years ago. For industry and consumers, such price levels have become a substantial relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and household heating bills have noticeably decreased compared to last winter.
The market is ready for possible weather surprises: short-term cold spells may temporarily increase demand and prices, but currently, systemic risks of fuel shortages do not appear on the horizon. Moreover, the European strategy of gas source diversification and energy-saving measures has proven effective, allowing for flexible responses to challenges. On a global scale, the IEA predicts that world natural gas consumption could reach a new record in 2026, primarily driven by rising demand in Asia. Nevertheless, currently, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is sufficient to meet demand, and the European market is entering the closing phase of winter without disruptions.
International Politics: Sanctions Pressure, Middle Eastern Tensions, and Changes in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on energy markets. In early 2026, the United States heightened efforts to restrict Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump is pushing a bill through Congress that would impose extremely high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports to the US from countries that “knowingly trade” oil and gas with Russia. The goal of the American side is to reduce Moscow's revenues from energy exports, which Washington believes are financing the military conflict in Ukraine. These measures are causing tension in foreign trade: China has sharply protested against external pressure on its energy policy, stating that its trade with Russia is legitimate and should not be politicized. India, for its part, is trying to maneuver—Delhi has indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports over the past year while negotiating with Washington to ease American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another notable event at the year's outset is the unexpected changes in Venezuela, which could affect the power dynamics in the oil market. In early January, the US conducted a forceful operation that resulted in Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro being ousted and detained. President Trump has expressed Washington's readiness to support a temporary administration in the country until a new government can be formed. This unprecedented move has resonated internationally: several countries (such as China) condemned the violation of Venezuela's sovereignty and principles of international law. However, the key question for the oil and gas industry is whether regime change will lead to the return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, but due to sanctions and an economic crisis, its production has plummeted over the last decade. Experts note that even with political changes, an immediate increase in exports will not occur: the country's oil infrastructure requires significant investments and modernization. Nevertheless, the expected gradual easing of sanctions in the future may increase the supply of heavy Venezuelan oil to the global market, becoming a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+.
The situation in the Middle East has also deteriorated. In January, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran, accusing Tehran of advancing its missile and nuclear program and destabilizing the region. Reports have emerged indicating that Washington is considering a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if diplomatic pressure does not yield results. Iran has categorically rejected demands to limit its defensive capabilities, stating that it will not tolerate external interference. The escalation of rhetoric between the US and Iran has heightened nervousness in the oil market: traders fear supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf in the event of military conflict. Although a direct confrontation has been avoided for now, the very threat of destabilization in this key oil-producing region contributes to rising prices and remains one of the main uncertainty factors for participants in the energy market.
Asia: Balancing Import and Domestic Production
Asian countries—key drivers of energy demand growth—are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet rapidly growing economic needs. The policies and choices of energy strategies by the largest Asian consumers—China and India—exert a significant influence on the global market:
- India: New Delhi seeks to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressure. After the onset of the Ukraine crisis, India significantly increased purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western sanctions, it slightly reduced the share of Russia in its oil imports. Concurrently, the country is banking on developing its domestic resources: a large-scale program for exploring deep-water oil and gas fields has been launched to increase its own production to meet the rapidly growing domestic demand. Additionally, India is rapidly expanding renewable energy capabilities (solar and wind power plants) and LNG import infrastructure, aiming to diversify its energy balance. Nevertheless, oil and gas remain the basis of its energy supply, necessary for industry and transportation, so Indian leadership must carefully balance between the benefits of importing cheap fuel and the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world's second-largest economy continues its course towards enhancing energy self-sufficiency, combining maximum extraction of traditional resources with record investments in clean energy. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, China increased its domestic oil and coal production to historic highs to reduce import dependence. Concurrently, the share of coal in electricity generation in China fell to a multi-year low (~55%) as the country brought record amounts of new solar, wind, and hydroelectric capacity online. Analysts estimate that in 2025, China installed more solar and wind power plants than the rest of the world combined, which helped curb the increase in fossil fuel consumption. However, in absolute terms, China's energy resource appetite remains immense: oil imports (including from Russia) continue to play a significant role in meeting demand, especially in transport and petrochemicals. Beijing is also actively signing long-term contracts for LNG supplies and increasing nuclear power generation. It is expected that in the new 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious non-carbon energy development goals while also planning sufficient reserves of traditional capacities—authorities aim to avoid energy shortages, considering the experience of rolling power outages in the past decade.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming the irreversibility of this trend. Record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources were recorded in many countries. According to international analytical centers, total generation from wind and solar for 2025 surpassed total electricity production from all coal power plants for the first time. This historical milestone was made possible by a sharp increase in new capacity: in 2025, global electricity generation from solar power plants grew by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, while wind generation increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the main increase in global electricity demand and allowed for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels in several regions.
However, the rapid growth of green energy is accompanied by reliability issues in electricity supply. When demand growth exceeds the entrance of renewable capacity or when weather conditions are unfavorable (calm, drought, extreme cold), energy systems must make up for the shortfall through traditional generation. For instance, in 2025, amidst an economic revival, electricity generation at coal-fired plants in the US increased as the existing renewable energy sources were insufficient to meet additional demand. In Europe, due to weak winds and low water levels in hydro resources during summer and autumn, there was a partial increase in the burning of natural gas and coal to meet energy needs.
These examples show that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants still play a vital role as a safety net, compensating for the variability of solar and wind generation. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other advanced technologies to smooth out fluctuations in output. However, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the rapid growth of renewable energy goes hand-in-hand with the retention of a significant share of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power, which ensure the stability of energy systems and cover base loads.
Coal: High Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The global coal market demonstrates how inertia can characterize global energy consumption. Despite efforts to decarbonize, coal usage remains at record-high levels worldwide. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, global coal demand further increased by approximately 0.5%, reaching around 8.85 billion tons—a historical maximum. The primary growth has been encountered in Asian economies. In China, which consumes over half of the world's coal, the relative role of coal in electricity generation has decreased to a minimum in recent decades, yet it remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, fearing energy shortages, Beijing approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025 to prevent disruptions in energy supply. India and Southeast Asian countries also continue to burn coal aggressively to satisfy the growing demand for electricity, as alternative sources are not developing at the same pace.
Prices for thermal coal stabilized in 2025 after the sharp fluctuations of previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (for instance, Newcastle coal), prices held noticeably lower than the peaks of 2022, although still above pre-crisis levels. This encourages mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts forecast that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the current decade and then begin to gradually decline as climate policy strengthens and numerous new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides baseline generation and heating for industry, so until effective substitutes emerge, demand for coal will remain stable. Thus, the tension between environmental goals and economic realities currently determines the fate of the coal industry: the trend towards reduction is evident, but the "swan song" of coal has not yet arrived.
Russian Oil Product Market: Price Stabilization Achieved Through State Efforts
At the beginning of 2026, relative stabilization in the Russian fuel market is evident, achieved thanks to unprecedented state intervention. As early as August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel reached record levels in the country, prompting the government to intervene rapidly. Strict temporary restrictions on the export of oil products were implemented, domestic fuel distribution was closely monitored, and financial support measures for refineries were expanded. These actions yielded tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale prices have retreated from peaks, while retail prices at gas stations have only increased moderately—by about 5–6% for the whole of 2025—comparable to inflation. A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel has been avoided: gas stations across the country, including remote regions, are supplied with fuel even during periods of seasonal demand growth.
Russian authorities have stated their intention to continue controlling the situation. Export restrictions on fuel remain in place at the beginning of 2026 (for gasoline, they have been extended at least until the end of February), and any signs of new imbalance may prompt stricter measures again. The government is also prepared to resort to commodity interventions from state fuel reserves if necessary to smooth out price fluctuations. For participants in the energy market, this policy means predictability of domestic prices for oil products, even in light of external shocks—sanctions and volatility in global prices. Oil companies were forced to accept partial restrictions on exports, but overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that the interests of consumers and the economy will be reliably protected from price shocks.
