Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Market: Oil, Gas, Electricity, and RES — Latest News as of January 4, 2026

Oil and Gas Industry News – Sunday, January 4, 2026: OPEC+ Maintains Production Policy; Sanctions Pressure Grows; Gas Market Stability; Acceleration of Energy Transition

The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 4, 2026, catch the attention of investors with a combination of market stability and geopolitical tension. At the forefront is the meeting of key OPEC+ countries, where the decision was made to maintain existing production quotas. This indicates that a surplus still persists in the global oil market, keeping Brent crude prices around $60 per barrel (almost 20% lower than a year ago, after the largest drop since 2020). The European gas market shows relative resilience: gas volumes in EU underground storage are above historical averages even amidst harsh winter conditions, which, together with record LNG imports, keeps gas prices at a moderate level. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – many countries are setting new records for generation from renewable sources, and investments in clean energy are rising. However, geopolitical factors continue to inject uncertainty: the sanctions standoff surrounding energy exports not only remains but is intensifying, leading to localized supply disruptions and shifts in trade routes. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.

Oil Market: OPEC+ Decisions and Price Pressures

• OPEC+ Policy: At its first meeting of 2026, the OPEC+ group decided to keep production levels unchanged, fulfilling its promise to halt quota increases for Q1. In 2025, the alliance increased total production by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand), but the recent sharp price drop forced countries to act cautiously. Maintaining restrictions aims to prevent further price declines, although opportunities for price increases remain limited as the global market remains well supplied with oil.
• Supply Surplus: Analysts predict that in 2026, oil supply will exceed demand by approximately 3–4 million barrels per day. High production volumes from OPEC+ countries, along with record output from the US, Brazil, and Canada, have led to significant oil stockpiles. Onshore reserves are full, and tanker fleets are transporting record volumes of oil, signaling market oversupply. This is pressuring prices, with Brent and WTI stabilized in a narrow range around $60.
• Demand Market Factors: The global economy shows moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. A slight increase in consumption is expected, primarily from Asia and the Middle East, where industries and transportation are expanding. However, a slowdown in Europe and strict monetary policy in the US are restraining demand growth. In China, government strategies to fill reserves smoothed price fluctuations last year: Beijing actively purchased cheaper oil for strategic reserves, effectively setting a price "floor." In 2026, China has limited room for further reserve builds; thus, its import policy will be a decisive factor for the oil market.
• Geopolitics and Prices: A key uncertainty for the oil market continues to be geopolitics. The prospects for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict remain unclear; therefore, sanctions against Russian oil exports remain in effect. If progress occurs during the year and sanctions are lifted, the return of significant Russian volumes to the market could exacerbate the oversupply and exert additional downward pressure on prices. For now, maintaining restrictions supports a certain balance, preventing prices from falling too low.

Gas Market: Sustained Supplies and Price Comfort

• European Stocks: EU countries entered 2026 with high gas reserves. By early January, underground storage in Europe was more than 60% full, just below record levels from a year ago. Thanks to a mild winter beginning and energy consumption-saving measures, the withdrawal of gas from storage is proceeding at moderate rates. This creates a strong buffer for the remaining cold months and calms the market: exchange prices for gas are kept in the range of ~$9–10 per MMBtu (approximately €28–30 per MWh according to the TTF index), significantly lower than the peaks during the 2022 crisis.
• LNG Imports: To compensate for reduced pipeline deliveries from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports through pipelines to Europe fell by more than 40%), European countries ramped up purchases of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, LNG imports to the EU increased by about 25%, mainly due to supplies from the US and Qatar, as well as the commissioning of new terminals. The steady influx of LNG helped mitigate the impacts of reduced Russian gas supplies and diversify supply sources, enhancing Europe’s energy security.
• Asian Factor: Despite Europe's focus on LNG, the balance in the global gas market also depends on demand in Asia. Last year, China and India increased their LNG imports to support industrial and energy sectors. At the same time, trade frictions led China to reduce purchases of American LNG (due to additional tariffs on energy products from the US), reallocating some demand to other suppliers. If Asian economies accelerate in 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments may intensify, potentially pushing prices up. However, for now, the situation is balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts expect relative stability in the gas market.
• Future Strategy: The European Union aims to cement the progress made in reducing dependence on Russian gas. The official goal is to completely cease gas imports from Russia by 2028, which implies further expansion of LNG infrastructure, development of alternative pipeline routes, and increases in domestic production/replacement. Simultaneously, governments are discussing extending target regulations for storage fill levels over the coming years (minimum 90% by October 1). These measures aim to provide a buffer for future cold winters and market volatility.

International Politics: Intensified Sanctions and New Risks

• Escalation in Venezuela: At the beginning of the year, a high-profile event unfolded: the US took military action against the Venezuelan leadership. American special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro, accused by Washington of drug trafficking and power usurpation. Simultaneously, the US tightened oil sanctions: in December, a maritime blockade of Venezuela was declared, with several tanker shipments of Venezuelan oil intercepted and confiscated. These measures have already reduced Venezuelan oil exports – in December, they fell to approximately 0.5 million barrels per day (nearly half the level of November). While production and refining in Venezuela continue to operate normally, the political crisis creates uncertainty for future supplies. The market is factoring in these risks: although Venezuela's share of global exports is small, Washington’s hardline approach signals to all importers about potential consequences of evading sanctions.
• Russian Energy Commodities: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding the revision of sanctions on Russian oil and gas has not yielded significant results. The US and EU are extending existing restrictions and price caps on Russian raw materials, linking their alleviation to progress in Ukraine. Furthermore, the US administration has indicated its readiness to pursue new measures: additional sanctions against companies in China and India that help transport or purchase Russian oil circumventing established limits are under discussion. These signals support a "risk premium" in the market, especially in the tanker transportation segment, where freight and insurance costs for oil of questionable origin are rising.
• Conflicts and Supply Security: Military and political conflicts continue to influence energy markets. Tensions persist in the Black Sea region: during the holiday season, reports emerged of strikes against port infrastructure linked to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. While this has not caused significant export disruptions yet, the risk to oil and grain transportation through maritime corridors remains high. In the Middle East, discord between key OPEC players – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – has intensified over the situation in Yemen, where Emirati-backed forces have clashed with Saudi allies. Nonetheless, within OPEC, these disagreements do not hinder cooperation for now: historically, the cartel has sought to separate politics from the overall goal of maintaining oil market stability.

Asia: India and China's Strategies Amid Challenges

• India's Import Policy: Faced with tightening Western sanctions, India is maneuvering between the demands of allies and its own energy needs. New Delhi officially has not joined the sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase substantial amounts of Russian oil and coal on favorable terms. Russian raw material supplies account for over 20% of India's oil imports, and a sudden exit from them is deemed impossible by the country. However, logistical and financial constraints became evident: by the end of 2025, Indian refiners slightly reduced purchases of Russian crude. Traders estimate that in December, Russian oil supplies to India dropped to about 1.2 million barrels per day – the lowest level in the last couple of years (compared to a record ~1.8 million bpd a month earlier). To avoid shortages, India’s largest refining company, Indian Oil, has activated an option to secure additional volumes of oil from Colombia and is also negotiating contracts with Middle Eastern and African suppliers. Concurrently, India demands preferences: Russian companies are offering Urals oil to it at a discount of approximately $4–5 to Brent price, which keeps these barrels competitive even under sanctions pressure. In the long term, India is increasing its domestic production: state-owned ONGC is developing deep-water fields in the Andaman Sea, and initial drilling results are encouraging. Despite these steps towards self-sufficiency, the country will remain heavily reliant on imports (over 85% of its oil consumption comes from foreign purchases) in the coming years.
• China's Energy Security: The largest economy in Asia continues to balance between increasing domestic production and boosting energy resource imports. China, not joining the sanctions against Russia, has taken advantage of the situation to ramp up purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China’s oil imports neared record levels, reaching around 11 million barrels per day (just shy of the 2023 peak). Gas imports – both LNG and pipeline – also remain high, ensuring industrial enterprises and heat power generation are fueled during the economic recovery. Simultaneously, Beijing increases domestic production yearly: oil extraction in China reached a historical peak of around 215 million tons (≈4.3 million bpd, +1% year-on-year) in 2025, while natural gas output exceeded 175 billion cubic meters (+5–6% year-on-year). Although the growth in domestic extraction helps cover part of the demand, China still imports about 70% of its consumed oil and ~40% of gas. In seeking to enhance energy security, Chinese authorities are investing in exploring new fields, increasing oil recovery technologies, and expanding storage capacities for strategic reserves. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to build significant oil reserves, creating a "safety cushion" for market upheavals. Thus, India and China – the two largest consumers in Asia – are flexibly adapting to the new environment, combining import diversification with the development of their resource base.

Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation

• Renewable Generation Growth: The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries recorded historical highs in electricity generation from renewable sources. In the European Union, total generation from solar and wind power plants exceeded production from coal and gas-fired plants for the first time. In the US, the share of renewables in electricity production surpassed 30%, with the total energy generated from solar and wind for the first time exceeding that from coal-fired plants. China, remaining the world leader in installed renewable energy capacity, commissioned dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines last year, renewing its own records in "green" energy. According to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards renewable energy projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
• Integration Challenges: The impressive growth of renewable energy, while beneficial, brings new challenges. The primary issue is ensuring the stability of energy systems with the increasing share of variable sources. In 2025, many countries faced the need to balance increased solar and wind generation with reserves from traditional generation. In Europe and the US, gas power plants continue to play a key role as flexible resources that cover peak demand or compensate for decreases in renewable output during adverse weather. China and India, despite massive renewable energy construction, continue to commission modern coal and gas plants to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity. Thus, the stage of the energy transition is characterized by a paradox: on one hand, new "green" records are being set; on the other, traditional hydrocarbon sources remain necessary for the reliable functioning of energy systems during the transition period.
• Policies and Goals: Governments worldwide are enhancing incentives for "green" energy – implementing tax benefits, subsidies, and innovative programs aimed at accelerating decarbonization. Major economies declare ambitious targets: the EU and the UK aim for carbon neutrality by 2050, China by 2060, and India by 2070. However, achieving these goals requires not only investments in generation but also the development of storage and energy distribution infrastructure. In the coming years, breakthroughs are anticipated in industrial energy storage: the cost of lithium-ion batteries is declining, and their mass production (especially in China) has increased by tens of percent year-on-year. By 2030, global storage capacities may exceed 500 GWh, enhancing energy system flexibility and allowing for the integration of even more renewables without the risk of outages.

Coal Sector: Steady Demand Amid "Green" Agenda

• Historical Highs: Despite the push for decarbonization, global coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to the IEA, it totaled around 8.85 billion tons (+0.5% y-o-y), driven by increased demand in the energy and industrial sectors of several countries. Coal usage remains particularly high in the Asia-Pacific region: rapid economic growth, combined with a shortage of alternatives in some developing countries, sustains significant demand for coal fuel. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – once again neared peak consumption levels: annual output at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, fully covering domestic needs. India has also increased its coal use to ensure approximately 70% of its electricity generation.
• Market Dynamics: Following the price shocks of 2022, global thermal coal prices stabilized within a narrower range. In 2025, coal quotes fluctuated in a balance of supply and demand: on one side, high demand in Asia and seasonal variations (such as increased consumption during hot summer months for air conditioning) drove prices; on the other side, rising exports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia kept the market balanced. Many countries are announcing plans to gradually reduce coal usage to meet climate goals, but a significant decrease in coal's market share is not expected in the next 5–10 years. For billions of people worldwide, electricity from coal-fired plants continues to provide basic stability in energy supply, especially where renewables have yet to fully replace traditional generation.
• Prospects and Transition Period: Global coal demand is expected to begin noticeably declining only by the end of the decade, with the commissioning of larger renewable capacities, development of nuclear energy, and gas generation. However, the transition will be uneven: in some years, local spikes in coal consumption are possible due to weather phenomena (such as droughts reducing hydro power output or harsh winters). Governments are required to balance energy security with environmental commitments. Many countries are implementing carbon taxes and quota systems to stimulate the abandonment of coal while investing in retraining workers in the coal industry and diversifying the economies of coal-producing regions. Thus, the coal sector remains significant, although the "green" agenda of developed countries gradually limits its long-term prospects.

Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortage and New Restrictions

• Diesel Deficit: A paradoxical situation arose in the global oil products market by the end of 2025: while oil prices declined, refining margins, especially for diesel fuel, rose significantly. In Europe, diesel production profitability increased by about 30% year-on-year. The reasons are both structural and geopolitical. On one hand, the EU's ban on imports of oil products made from Russian oil has reduced the available diesel supply and other light oil products on the European market. On the other hand, military actions have led to attacks on oil refineries: for example, strikes on Ukrainian refineries and infrastructure limited local fuel production. Consequently, diesel supply in the region has become constrained, keeping prices high despite overall oil affordability.
• Limited Capacities: Globally, the refining industry is facing a lack of available capacity. In developed countries, major oil companies have closed or repurposed several refineries in recent years (partly for environmental reasons), and new refining projects are not expected to come online soon. This means the oil products market remains in structural deficit for certain types of fuel. Investors and traders expect that high margins for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline will continue at least until new capacities are introduced or demand drops due to a transition to electric vehicles and other energy sources.
• Impact of Sanctions and Regional Aspects: Sanction policies continue to affect refining and oil product trade. The Venezuelan state-owned company PDVSA, for example, has accumulated significant stocks of heavy oil residues (bunker fuel) due to export restrictions: US sanctions have significantly curtailed the marketing options for this raw material. This has resulted in a shortage of bunker fuel in regions that previously relied on Venezuelan supplies, forcing consumers to seek alternative suppliers. In other regions, however, opportunities arise: some Asian refineries are ramping up throughput, processing discounted Russian oil and partially meeting demand in countries from Africa and Latin America where fuel shortages are felt.

Russian Fuel Market: Continuation of Stabilization Measures

• Export Restrictions: To prevent shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending emergency measures introduced in the fall of 2025. The government has officially extended the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel until February 28, 2026. This measure releases additional volumes of fuel for domestic consumption – estimated at 200,000 to 300,000 tons per month, which were previously sent for export. As a result, fuel stations within the country are better supplied with fuel during the winter period, and wholesale prices have significantly retreated from the peaks of late summer.
• Financial Support for the Industry: Authorities are maintaining a comprehensive set of incentives for refiners to direct sufficient volumes of fuel to the domestic market. Starting January 1, excise taxes on gasoline and diesel have been raised (by 5.1%), increasing the tax burden; however, oil companies continue to receive compensation through a damping mechanism. The "dampener" compensates part of the difference between high world prices and lower domestic ones, allowing refineries to avoid losses in selling fuel domestically. Thanks to subsidies and compensations, factories find it economically viable to redirect products to domestic gas stations, maintaining stable prices for end consumers.
• Monitoring and Operational Response: Relevant ministries (Ministry of Energy, FAS, etc.) continue daily monitoring of the fuel supply situation in the regions. Control over refinery operations and logistics has been strengthened – authorities have declared a readiness to immediately deploy reserve stocks or introduce new restrictions if disruptions occur. A recent incident at one southern refinery (the Ilysky plant in the Krasnodar region suffered a drone attack causing a fire) confirmed the effectiveness of this approach: the accident was quickly contained, and no gasoline shortages were allowed. As a result of the comprehensive measures, retail prices at gas stations remain under control: their growth over the past year has been only a few percent, which is close to overall inflation. Ahead of the 2026 sowing campaign, the government intends to continue proactive measures, preventing new price spikes and ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply to the economy.

Financial Markets and Indicators: Energy Sector Response

• Stock Dynamics: Oil and gas company stock indices generally reflected declines in oil prices at the end of 2025. Middle Eastern oil-dependent exchanges saw corrections: for instance, the Saudi Tadawul fell by about 1% in December, while shares of major global oil and gas corporations (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) showed slight declines due to falling profits in the upstream segment. However, in the first days of 2026, the situation stabilized: investors priced in the expected OPEC+ decision and viewed it as a predictability factor, leading to neutral-positive dynamics in industry stock quotes.
• Monetary Policy: Actions by central banks indirectly influence the fuel and energy sector. In several developing countries, monetary policy has begun to ease: for example, the Central Bank of Egypt lowered its key rate by 100 basis points in December after a period of high inflation. This supported the local stock market (+0.9% for Egypt's index over the week) and might stimulate domestic demand for energy resources. In major economies, conversely, rates remain high to combat inflation, which somewhat cools business activity and restrains fuel consumption growth, although it simultaneously prevents capital outflows from raw material markets.
• Resource-exporting Countries' Currencies: The currencies of resource-exporting countries maintain relative stability despite oil price volatility. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and several currencies from Gulf countries are supported by large export revenues. By the end of 2025, against the backdrop of falling oil prices, these currencies only slightly weakened, as many of the mentioned countries' budgets are balanced based on lower price assumptions. The presence of sovereign funds and currency peg systems (as in Saudi Arabia) also smoothens fluctuations. For investors, this signals relative reliability: resource economies are entering 2026 without signs of a currency crisis, positively impacting the investment climate in the energy sector.