Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Thursday, December 25, 2025. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, and Key Global Energy Sector Events — Overview and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
Today's overview covers the key events in the global fuel and energy complex. Oil markets are finishing the year relatively stable, aided by the prudent actions of OPEC+ and an increase in supply, while geopolitical factors—from sanctions to attempts at peaceful resolution—continue to impact deliveries. The energy sector is witnessing record achievements in renewable and nuclear energy, while global coal demand has reached a historical peak before an anticipated decline.
OPEC+ Maintains Production to Stabilize the Market
- It has been decided to maintain current oil production quotas for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a potential oversupply in the market.
- OPEC+ countries have already returned approximately 2.9 million barrels per day to the market from previously reduced volumes, but a collective production cut of about 3.2 million barrels per day still remains in effect until the end of 2026.
- The meeting took place amid a new attempt by the U.S. to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. OPEC+ considers that the success of negotiations and a potential easing of sanctions could add more oil supplies to the market, while a failure would intensify sanction pressures and limit Russian exports.
Oil Prices Remain Stable
Global oil prices are closing the year without sharp fluctuations, stabilizing within an average range. Brent is holding around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is around $58–59, reflecting a balance between steady demand and sufficient supply.
- At the beginning of the week, prices increased by approximately 2% amid strong macroeconomic data from the U.S.: GDP growth in Q3 exceeded expectations, boosting fuel demand forecasts.
- Additional support for prices came from disruption risks. New U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s oil sector and attacks on oil export infrastructure in the Black Sea amplified market concerns.
- However, by the end of 2025, Brent's price fell by approximately 15%. The oil market showed an unusually narrow price corridor ($60–80) even amid geopolitical upheavals—thanks to record production in the U.S. (over 13.5 million barrels/day) and an increase in supplies from non-OPEC countries that compensated for the shocks.
- Refineries increased output of oil products, while commercial oil and fuel inventories in the U.S. grew in December. This helped keep gasoline and diesel prices stable at the end of the year.
Natural Gas: Comfortable Inventories and Moderate Prices
The natural gas market entered winter relatively calmly. In Europe, wholesale gas prices have stabilized around €27 per MWh—at a low since spring 2024—thanks to high inventories and a steady influx of LNG.
- Gas underground storage in the EU is more than 70% full at the beginning of winter, which is significantly above long-term averages and reduces the risk of shortages even in cold weather.
- LNG imports remain high, compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia. Major consumers (Germany, Italy, etc.) are actively purchasing LNG in the spot market, diversifying their sources.
- In the U.S., natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are holding around $5 per million BTU. Record production levels and high LNG export volumes keep the American market balanced, although periods of anomalous cold can trigger short-term price spikes.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Energy Supplies
Political conflicts and sanctions continue to affect global energy markets, presenting both disruption threats and expectations of improvement in the future.
- The U.S. administration has tightened measures against Venezuela's oil sector: tankers carrying Venezuelan oil are now under sanctions. In December, several vessels were intercepted and forced to return, threatening to overcrowd local storage and reduce production in the country.
- Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, strikes on energy infrastructure have increased. In November, a Ukrainian drone damaged the CPC pipeline terminal near Novorossiysk, reducing exports of Kazakh oil of the CPC Blend grade in December by one-third (to approximately 1.14 million barrels/day) and forcing part of the volumes to be redirected away from the Black Sea.
- Despite the tightening of U.S. sanctions in the fall against leading Russian oil companies (Rosneft and LUKOIL), their impact on the global market has been limited. Russian oil exports remain close to multi-month highs due to alternative logistics, although Urals is trading at a significant discount to Brent.
Renewable Energy: Wind and Investment Records
The renewable energy sector continues to gather momentum worldwide, setting new capacity records and attracting large-scale investments—even amidst political risks.
- On December 5, the UK achieved a historic peak in wind electricity generation—23,825 MW—accounting for more than half of the country's needs at that moment. This record was supported by strong winter winds and the expansion of offshore wind farms.
- According to BloombergNEF, global investments in new renewable energy projects reached a record $386 billion in the first half of 2025. The majority of funds are directed towards the development of solar and wind generation, as well as energy storage systems to integrate renewable sources.
- In the U.S., a federal court overturned a ban on building new wind energy facilities on federal lands and offshore, which was implemented earlier this year. This decision paves the way for major offshore wind farms and supports states' plans to increase their share of clean energy.
- China maintains its global leadership in renewable energy: the total capacity of renewable sources in the country has surpassed 1.88 TW (about 56% of the total capacity). The extensive rollout of solar and wind stations, as well as storage systems, has allowed China to keep CO2 emissions stable despite economic growth.
Nuclear Energy: The Return of Large Capacity
After a lengthy downturn in the global nuclear industry, there is a noticeable revival. Countries are reassessing the role of nuclear generation as a stable low-carbon energy source, aiming to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
- In Japan, preparations are underway for the partial restart of the largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. TEPCO has received approval from the Niigata prefectural authorities and plans to launch reactor No. 6 with a capacity of 1,360 MW on January 20, 2026—the first reactor launched by the company since 2011. The full restoration of the 8.2-gigawatt station will be phased and will take several years.
- The Japanese government has announced support measures for the nuclear industry aimed at doubling the share of nuclear energy in the energy balance. A system of government loans and guarantees for reactor modernization will be implemented; currently, 14 out of 33 reactors remaining after the Fukushima-1 disaster have resumed operations.
- A return to nuclear energy is also observed in other countries. In Europe, Finland has launched the Olkiluoto-3 reactor, while France and the UK are investing in new nuclear plants, and the U.S. is considering extending the lifespan of operating units and financing modular reactors.
Coal Sector: Peak Consumption and Gradual Decline
The global coal market reached a historical peak in 2025, but a trend reversal is anticipated ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by 0.5% and reached 8.85 billion tons in 2025. By the end of the decade, a slow decline in coal demand is expected as renewables, nuclear, and natural gas displace it from generation.
- In the U.S., coal combustion for electricity generation increased in 2025. This is due to last year’s spike in gas prices and a presidential directive to extend the operations of coal-fired power plants that were preparing to close.
- China remains the largest consumer of coal, accounting for about 60% of the country's electricity generation. In 2025, coal demand in China stabilized; a gradual decline is expected by 2030 due to the massive addition of renewable capacity. Beijing's policy aims for peak emissions by 2030, implying a reduced role for coal.
Corporate News: Deals and Strategies of Energy Companies
The end of the year is marked by significant corporate moves in the energy sector, reflecting companies' desire to optimize portfolios and adapt to new conditions.
- BP is selling 65% of its subsidiary Castrol (lubricants) to U.S. investment fund Stonepeak for $6 billion. The deal values the Castrol business at $10.1 billion; BP will retain a 35% stake in the new joint venture. The proceeds will be directed towards reducing debt and dividend payments, following the strategy of enhancing the return on traditional areas.
- In Russia, foreign partners are showing interest in returning to the market despite sanctions. Indian ONGC and Japanese SODECO have retained their stakes in Sakhalin-1, and the preliminary agreement between ExxonMobil and Rosneft regarding the compensation of losses signals the readiness of major players to resume cooperation once the political situation improves.
- Technological deals are occurring in electricity and infrastructure. For example, U.S. company Alphabet (parent company of Google) announced in December that it is acquiring Intersect Power, which develops renewable energy and data center projects, for $4.7 billion. This will enable Alphabet to accelerate its renewable generation development and reduce dependence on overloaded power grids.
