Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News for Friday, January 16, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Market.
As we enter the year 2026, global oil and gas markets are showing signs of increasing supply and persistent volatility. Oil prices remain moderate despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while the demand for hydrocarbons is tempered by slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, there is growing attention on the active expansion of wind energy, solar generation, and the development of other "clean" energy sources. Investors and participants in the energy sector are closely analyzing the balance between the oversupply of fossil fuels and the substantial transformation of energy.
Global Oil Market
- In January 2026, oil prices are holding in a range of approximately $60-65 per barrel for Brent (WTI – around $58-60). A sharp decline in quotations (-3%) over the last week was prompted by a softer rhetoric from the White House regarding Iran: statements about possible non-intervention from the U.S. have significantly lowered expectations of supply disruptions and eased market tensions.
- Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the oversupply continues to pressure prices. Oil production in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America has reached record levels, shifting the balance toward excess. Experts predict average Brent prices of around $55-60 in 2026, pointing to risks of further declines. According to the U.S. Energy Department, the average annual price for Brent in 2026 is expected to be approximately $56/barrel.
- OPEC has confirmed a rise in demand: a January report forecasts global oil consumption in 2026 to reach 106.52 million barrels per day (+1.38 million b/d from last year). Nevertheless, at the OPEC+ meeting on January 4, quotas remained unchanged—as the cartel seeks to balance the market without sharp reductions.
- European regulators are maintaining pressure on supplies from Russia: starting February 1, 2026, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to $44.1 per barrel, below the current quotation for Urals crude (~$39). At the same time, the White House is actively leveraging energy sanctions: the U.S. has already sold the first batch of Venezuelan oil amounting to $500 million, with the proceeds frozen in foreign accounts (the main one in Qatar).
- Global refineries are responding to the surplus: many oil refineries are lowering processing rates due to excess crude, prompting governments to adjust fuel policies. For example, discussions are underway in Russia about introducing quotas on gasoline exports to prevent shortages in the domestic market. In Europe and Asia, exports of oil products are increasing, reflecting the balance between energy resources and clean energy.
Global Gas Market
- The European gas market is experiencing a new crisis due to winter cold. In mid-January, the spot price at the TTF hub exceeded $387 per 1000 cubic meters—a rise of more than 11% since the start of the week. A deficit in wind generation (the contribution of wind has fallen to ~15% of consumption from 20% year earlier) has heightened demand for gas-fired power plants.
- European storage levels are at a record low: as of January 13, inventory levels stood at only ~52% of the maximum. Due to a severe deficit in pipeline gas (transit from Russia through Ukraine has been halted), EU countries have drastically increased LNG imports: in 2025, 109 million tons of LNG were delivered there (+28% compared to 2024). In January 2026, around 9.5 million tons of LNG is expected (+18% y/y) to meet winter demand.
- Significant changes are also occurring in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has increased gas imports by ~20% (to 30 million cubic meters per day) through Slovakia and Poland to compensate for halted transit and declining domestic production. Turkey and Southeast European countries are negotiating to increase supplies from Azerbaijan and the U.S. for diversification.
- Meanwhile, Russia is diversifying its exports: Gazprom has for the first time supplied 38.8 billion cubic meters to China (via the Power of Siberia) in 2025, exceeding total supplies to Europe and Turkey. This reflects a shift in demand geography: Asia is ramping up long-term purchases of Russian gas against a backdrop of increasing renewable energy use.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
- Renewable energy continues to see robust growth. China introduced record capacities for wind and solar generation in 2025—over 300 GW of new solar and 100 GW of wind power. This allowed clean electricity to outpace demand growth and led to the first historical reductions in generation from coal-fired power plants (see below).
- The growth of renewables occurred alongside an overall increase in electricity consumption; however, the trend is clearly leaning towards “green” generation. Many countries are boosting investments in solar and wind projects: new auctions for building solar and wind power plants in Europe and Asia are offering hundreds of megawatts of capacity annually.
- The nuclear energy perspective is also interesting: Germany is reconsidering past decisions and intends to bring back nuclear power plants. Chancellor F. Merz labeled the 2022 discontinuation of nuclear energy as a “strategic mistake” and announced plans for new nuclear reactors to ensure the stability of the energy system.
- Overall, the share of carbon-free generation is increasing. The entry of hydro, geothermal, and biomass capacities is accelerating, along with developments in energy storage. This intensifies competition with traditional sources and creates favorable conditions for reducing electricity prices in the long term.
Coal Energy and Climate
- The results of 2025 marked a historical dynamic: coal-fired generation in China and India declined simultaneously for the first time. In China, coal production fell by approximately 1.6%, while in India, the decrease was 3.0% compared to 2024. The last time a similar decline was recorded was in 1973.
- The drop in coal demand is attributed to record growth in renewable energy and a slowing economic growth rate. In China, the rapid introduction of solar and wind capacities completely offset the increase in electricity consumption, resulting in the first historical simultaneous decline in coal generation in both of the largest coal producers.
- Consequently, the global energy structure is changing: the share of coal generation is decreasing, positively impacting greenhouse gas emissions. This is critically important for meeting the climate obligations of many countries and curbing growth in global electricity prices, thus reducing risks of energy shortages.
Oil Products and Refineries
- The balance of the oil products market reflects the phenomenon of fuel surplus. In many countries, high prices for gasoline and diesel are observed due to low inventories and expensive logistics in 2025. Refineries are reducing processing of excess oil, and regulators are implementing new measures: for example, Russia is considering introducing quotas on gasoline exports to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market.
- In the European Union, on the contrary, some refineries are refocusing on exporting fuel to developing countries. The inventories of oil products in EU countries remain unstable against the backdrop of a harsh winter, hence there is a high likelihood of further adjustment in the fuel market as the economy recovers. Strong demand in Asia supports prices for fuel oil and diesel, which stimulates investments in additional storage and processing capacities.
Global Energy Policy and Deals
- The policy of sanctions and alliances continues to shape the market. The European Union has lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1/barrel, while the U.S. has increased pressure: the U.S. Treasury has extended the license for operations with Lukoil's foreign assets, effectively easing sanctions against the oil company.
- Serbia and Hungary are preparing an intergovernmental energy agreement: a 113-kilometer oil pipeline “Novi Sad – Aldyo” (capacity 5 million tons/year) is planned, along with expanded cooperation in electricity and gas supply (for example, reserving gas capacities). This is part of regional initiatives to diversify supplies.
- On the international stage, connections in LNG and pipelines are increasing. China and Southeast Asian countries are negotiating long-term contracts for LNG from the U.S. and Qatar, while Russia is promoting new gas routes (Central Asia–China, “Nord Stream – 3” in the future) to meet customer needs in Asia and Europe.
Forecasts and Investments
- Analytical agencies indicate a dual nature of prospects. On one hand, OPEC forecasts an increase in oil demand (+1.38 million b/d in 2026), but fundamental factors suggest oversupply in the market. According to EIA data, Brent could “drop” to ~$56/barrel in 2026, and the oversupply will lead to increases in global inventories.
- On the other hand, there is an increasing investment flow into clean energy. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, despite a temporary slowdown in job growth, global investments in wind and solar projects are expected to continue their record growth into 2026. Interest in hydrogen energy and energy storage is also rising: corporations are earmarking new funds for the development of storage systems and “green” hydrogen.
- Investors are redirecting their portfolios: oil and gas companies are increasing R&D spending in the field of renewables and energy efficiency, while Western funds are gradually reducing investments in hydrocarbons. There is a growing interest in the stocks of “green” startups and renewable projects in the securities market, which may eventually correct the balance of supply and demand in traditional energy markets.
