Oil Market: Brent at $87 — Market on Standby for Hormuz Deal
Oil prices conclude the week with mixed movements. Brent is trading around $87 per barrel after a 2.2% decline on Thursday, while WTI hovers near $81. Since the start of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel with Iran at the end of February, the international benchmark has increased by approximately one quarter, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 30%. The main factors influencing price dynamics are:
- Status of the Hormuz Strait: This key maritime corridor, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies passed before the war, formally remains blocked. Iran and Oman are negotiating shipping routes, but no agreement has been reached: Tehran demands the removal of the U.S. maritime blockade as a precondition for the full reopening of the strait.
- Actual Flows: Despite the deadlock in negotiations, oil continues to leave the Persian Gulf — according to U.S. estimates, up to 9 million barrels per day transit through the strait, with some tankers operating with their transponders turned off, while the U.S. Navy's capacity to escort vessels is expanding. Attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure maintain a risk premium in prices.
- Supply Deficit: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a global oil shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day in the current quarter — double the previous forecast; in July, supply was 6.3 million barrels per day below last year's level.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) does not expect Middle Eastern production to return to pre-war levels before early 2027 and forecasts an average Brent price of $87 per barrel in 2026.
Demand Under Pressure: IEA and OPEC Cut Forecasts
The flipside of the price shock is the destruction of demand. This week, the IEA lowered its forecast for global oil consumption, warning that the prolonged conflict and high prices are increasingly pressuring economic activity. OPEC, in turn, has reduced its estimate of global demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day — marking the fourth consecutive downward revision. An additional bearish signal arose from the U.S.: commercial oil inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels in a week — a record weekly increase — amid significant drawdowns from the strategic reserve and a sharp rise in imports. Several analysts believe that the peak of the market deficit was reached in May–June; however, the further price trajectory entirely depends on the conflict's progression and the status of the Hormuz Strait.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Record Low Reserves
The European gas market remains the most vulnerable link in the global energy sector. TTF hub prices fluctuated between €56–62 per MWh during the week, soaring more than 10% at the beginning of the week on news of supply risks. Key issues include:
- Low Reserves: EU underground storage facilities are only about 55–58% full — the worst level for mid-August since records began in 2009 and roughly 22 percentage points below the five-year average. Brussels has already reduced the mandatory filling target from 90% to 80% by November 1, but even that is at risk.
- LNG Shortage: Shipments of Qatari liquefied natural gas through the Hormuz Strait are facing significant delays, and competition with Asia for available cargoes is intensifying amid a hot summer.
- Norwegian Factor: An extension of repairs at the Ormen Lange field until February 2027 could remove over 1 billion cubic meters of gas from the market during the heating season.
Banks and energy companies are raising price targets: Commerzbank has lifted its end-of-year forecast to €50 per MWh, while Uniper anticipates a range of €50–60 as long as the strait remains closed. The heat in Europe further bolsters electricity demand for cooling, intensifying pressure on the gas balance.
Electricity and Renewables: Sun and Wind Rewrite Records
Amid the hydrocarbon turmoil, renewable energy is showcasing a structural breakthrough. According to the analytical center Ember, in 2026, the combined output of solar and wind farms in Europe could surpass gas generation for the longest period on record — monthly renewable energy generation reached 80–110 TWh. The global picture is equally impressive: in 2025, the world added a record 800 GW of renewable capacity (+16% year-on-year), with over 600 GW attributed to solar energy; China accounted for about 60% of the global increase. For the first time in history, the sun became the largest source of meeting the increase in global energy consumption. In the U.S., wind and solar contributed a record 17% to electricity generation, and in 2026, almost all net capacity growth will be provided by renewables and storage solutions. High prices for gas and oil are only accelerating investments in clean generation, storage systems, and grids.
Coal: Beneficiary of the Energy Crisis
The coal market is strengthening under the effect of fuel switching. Newcastle energy coal futures stabilized around $130 per ton — approximately 17% above last year's level: expensive oil and gas are increasing the attractiveness of coal generation in importer countries in Europe and Asia. China has published a five-year plan for the development of the coal industry, aiming to consolidate and digitize mines while creating a reserve capacity of over 100 million tons per year. India is ramping up its own production — in July, production increased by 7.5% year-on-year, reducing dependence on imports. In the short term, coal remains a safeguard for Asia's energy systems against gas shortages and costly oil.
Russia: Fuel Export Ban Extended Until January 2027
The Russian petroleum products market continues to operate under manual management. The government has extended the full ban on the export of motor gasoline until January 31, 2027, expanding restrictions to both producers and traders; regulations on the export of diesel, marine fuel, and gasoils have been tightened. The reasons and accompanying measures include:
- intensified drone attacks on refineries in early August led to the shutdown of several plants and reduced exchange sales of gasoline;
- exchange prices remained high: the AI-92 index is holding at around 71,400 rubles per ton, and AI-95 is around 76,000 rubles per ton;
- authorities have authorized the production of Euro-3 class fuel and streamlined the import of petroleum products from friendly countries;
- a mechanism for direct contracts between plants and suppliers is developing, bypassing the exchange to reduce speculative pressure.
Experts expect a gradual normalization of supply by the end of August and do not exclude a noticeable decline in wholesale prices no earlier than the fourth quarter, provided there are no new unscheduled refinery shutdowns.
What This Means for Investors and Market Participants in the Energy Sector
The market has entered a phase of fragile equilibrium: the geopolitical premium in oil is confronted with increasing signs of demand destruction, while the European gas market is pricing in the risk of a supply-constrained winter. For investors, key benchmarks for the coming weeks include:
- Negotiations on the Hormuz Strait — any progress could drop oil and gas prices by 10–15%, while a breakdown in dialogue could push Brent back to $90 and above.
- Gas Injection Rates in European UGS — falling behind schedule by the end of September will trigger early pricing of winter supply shortages on TTF.
- Data on Inventories and Demand in the U.S. and China — confirmation of consumption weakness will reinforce the correction scenario in oil.
- Situation with Russian Refineries — the recovery of processing will depend on the balance of the domestic fuel market and the timeline for easing export restrictions.
Daily Summary: Key Energy Sector Figures as of August 15, 2026
- Brent — around $87 per barrel; WTI — around $81;
- Oil deficit in the global market — 1.8 million barrels per day in the current quarter (IEA estimate);
- Oil demand growth forecast for 2026 — 580,000 barrels per day (OPEC, fourth consecutive downward revision);
- TTF gas — €56–62 per MWh; EU UGS filling level — about 55–58%;
- Newcastle coal — around $130 per ton (+17% year-on-year);
- Gasoline export ban from Russia — extended until January 31, 2027.
Saturday in the energy markets will be characterized by anticipation: the fate of the Hormuz Strait remains the primary price factor for oil, gas, coal, and electricity worldwide. Investors and energy companies should prepare for increased volatility — autumn 2026 promises to be a test of resilience for the entire global energy system.
