The main intrigue of the week is the preparation for Anthropic's IPO. The company's CFO has begun preliminary meetings with institutional investors, and the market is discussing a potential valuation of around $2 trillion for a listing on Nasdaq as early as October. Meanwhile, capital is actively flowing into "hard" technologies: defense startups, nuclear energy, energy storage, and AI infrastructure. Below are the key events and trends shaping the agenda of the venture market for Saturday, August 15, 2026.
- Anthropic's IPO reaches the finish line. Preliminary meetings with investors, a targeted listing in October, and a likelihood of placement by the end of the year at 76–80%, according to prediction markets.
- A record half-year for the global venture industry. $510 billion in investments over six months and 16 rounds of a billion dollars or more just in the second quarter.
- Defense technologies hit historical highs. Over $14.6 billion invested in the sector since the beginning of the year—the 2025 record surpassed before the end of summer.
- Energy becomes the second favorite after AI. Billion-dollar rounds in energy storage, nuclear projects, and data center infrastructure.
- New funds and "dry powder." The launch of the Craft Ventures fund with $1 billion and the activity of mega-funds are fueling the market with capital.
- Russia and CIS: cautious recovery. A forecast of a 10–15% growth for the local venture market and the launch of new funds totaling 10 billion rubles.
IPO Anthropic: A rehearsal for the largest placement in AI history
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude model family, is nearing its public offering. The company's CFO is conducting a series of preliminary meetings with major institutional investors—a standard step before the formal roadshow. The company confidentially filed an S-1 registration application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, ahead of OpenAI by a week, and now the consensus among underwriters points to a listing on Nasdaq in October 2026.
The scope of the deal is unprecedented. The last private round, Series H-1, at $65 billion in May, valued Anthropic at $965 billion, and the secondary market is already trading company shares with an implied valuation of $1.05–1.15 trillion. Some forecasts allow for a capitalization of around $2 trillion in the case of a successful offering. Prediction markets estimate the likelihood of an IPO by the end of 2026 at 76–80%. Organizers include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, with expected proceeds of at least $60 billion. OpenAI, according to media reports, is leaning towards postponing its own listing until 2027, giving its competitor the status of the first public AI laboratory.
A record half-year: $510 billion and unprecedented capital concentration
The first half of 2026 has become the strongest in the history of the venture industry. Global investments reached $510 billion, surpassing the total for all of 2025 ($440 billion). North America attracted $392 billion—a historical high for the region. At the same time, capital is concentrating in a narrow circle of companies: in the second quarter, 16 startups closed rounds of over a billion dollars, totaling $108.6 billion, which constituted 53% of quarterly financing.
For venture funds, this signifies a dual reality. On one hand, the exit window is wide open: the second quarter became one of the strongest periods for exits in recent years, with IPOs and M&As returning in full swing. On the other hand, the number of deals is growing significantly slower than the volumes, and competition for access to segment leaders is intensifying to an extreme.
Mega rounds of the week: from machines for defense to nuclear reactors
The August series of billion-dollar deals confirms the investors’ pivot towards the "physical" layer of the technological economy:
- Hadrian — $1.37 billion in a Series D round at a valuation of $7.87 billion for automated defense manufacturing; the deal was led by WCM Investment Management, Washington Harbour Partners, and Valor Equity Partners.
- Base Power — $1 billion Series D at a valuation of $13 billion for home energy storage; among the investors are Ribbit Capital, Addition, and a strategic division of JPMorgan.
- Valar Atomics — $1 billion Series B led by Sequoia Capital for the development of small nuclear reactors plus a $200 million credit line.
- Form Energy — $750 million Series G led by T. Rowe Price for scaling iron-air batteries for long-term energy storage.
- Lovable — $400 million Series C at a valuation of $13.3 billion: the Swedish "vibe-coding" platform solidifies its status as the fastest-growing AI startup in Europe.
The overall signal of the week is clear: the largest checks in venture history are going to companies that own the heavy, physical, or regulated layer of the AI economy, rather than software overlays on someone else's infrastructure.
Defense technologies: a historical record long before the year's end
The defense and national security startup sector is experiencing a structural boom. Since the beginning of 2026, over $14.6 billion has been invested in the sector—the previous year's record of $9.6 billion was surpassed in the summer. Anduril Industries remains the leader with a $5 billion Series H round at a valuation of $61 billion. Shield AI attracted $1.5 billion at a valuation of $12.7 billion, and autonomous marine vessel developer Saronic raised $1.75 billion. A separate trend is the record activity of corporations: defense giants such as Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Airbus participated in venture rounds totaling $4.1 billion, marking a historical high.
The IPO market: lessons from SpaceX and the queue for Anthropic
Public markets remain open but demanding. The case of SpaceX is telling: the company conducted the largest IPO in history in June with an estimated valuation of around $1.77 trillion, with shares soaring to $2.5 trillion, but after the first quarterly report, which revised expectations for capital expenditures on AI, its capitalization fell back to $1.4 trillion. For investors, this serves as a reminder that even iconic issuers undergo tough re-evaluations by the public market.
Nevertheless, the pipeline for placements remains active: quantum developer Quantinuum raised $1.68 billion in an oversubscribed IPO, and since the beginning of the year, the volume of proceeds through initial placements in the U.S. has increased by more than 2.5 times year-on-year, with Databricks, Cerebras, Wealthfront, and dozens of companies with confidential applications waiting in line for a listing.
New funds: "dry powder" continues to flow
The supply of capital is keeping pace with demand. Craft Ventures, led by David Sacks, announced a $1 billion fund focused on AI. European players are strengthening their positions: Earlybird, with assets around €2.5 billion, is lobbying for the expansion of institutional capital for startups on the continent. In India, seven rounds closed on a single day, August 13, with the participation of Peak XV Partners, SMBC Asia Rising Fund, and Anicut Capital—emerging markets are maintaining a brisk pace of early-stage deals.
Russia and CIS: recovery backed by funds
The local market is gradually emerging from a protracted stagnation. Industry participants predict that in 2026, the volume of the Russian venture market could grow by 10–15% and approach 17 billion rubles, with the market already showing a growth of about 70% in the first half of the year after several years of decline. Key drivers are private and state funds: Kama Flow and "Medscan" launched funds of 10 billion rubles each, and the Moscow Venture Fund is ramping up its deal portfolio with partners. The activity of business angels, according to managers, is expected to return only as the key interest rate declines.
What this means for investors: conclusions as of August 15, 2026
The venture market is entering the fall of 2026 in a phase of record liquidity and equally record selectivity. Key benchmarks for funds and LPs:
- Concentration is the new norm. Almost half of global capital is going to two companies; access to segment leaders is becoming the main competitive advantage of funds.
- Infrastructure matters more than applications. Valuations are rising for owners of computing, energy, manufacturing, and data—software overlays are undergoing stricter scrutiny on security.
- The exit window is open, but the public market disciplines. The re-evaluation of SpaceX after its report serves as a warning for all planning placements at the upper limit of the range.
- The IPO of Anthropic will serve as a stress test for the entire AI wave. The success or failure of the October listing will set price benchmarks for private rounds for quarters to come.
Saturday, August 15, 2026, marks the market at the peak of the cycle: capital is becoming cheaper for the select few and more expensive for everyone else. For venture investors, this is a time for discipline—and perhaps the best time in a decade for those who know how to choose wisely.
