Key Updates by Friday Morning: Crucial Events in the Energy Sector
- Oil: Brent is trading around $88–90 per barrel, WTI between $83–85; weekly growth exceeds 6%.
- IEA: The August report lowers the forecast for global oil supply in 2026 to 102 million b/d (−4.3 million b/d year-on-year), with a deficit of 1.8 million b/d in Q3.
- OPEC+: Final quota increase for September approved (+188 thousand b/d); the alliance is preparing for a pause until year-end.
- Gas: EU storage facilities are only filled to ~55–58% — about 22 percentage points below the five-year average; TTF is almost twice as expensive as at the beginning of the year.
- Russia: The ban on gasoline exports has been extended until January 31, 2027, with diesel restrictions in place until the end of August.
Oil Market: Brent at $90 — Geopolitical Risk Premium Remains High
Oil prices finish the week close to the highs of the past two months. The North Sea Brent range is maintained at $87–90 per barrel, while US WTI hovers around $83–85. Over the past month, Brent has risen approximately 4–14% depending on the contract, with an annual gain exceeding 30%. Volatility remains extreme: prices moved within a width of around $40 per barrel in July, reacting to every signal from diplomatic channels. Meanwhile, the forward curve is in deep backwardation – contracts for 2027 are trading at $8–10 below the nearest ones, reflecting expectations of a gradual normalization in supply after de-escalation. Global oil inventories have fallen below 7.9 billion barrels — the lowest since spring 2025; the cumulative reduction in reserves since the beginning of the conflict has reached 410 million barrels.
IEA Report: Supply Declining Faster Than Demand
The August report released by the IEA on Wednesday has become the key fundamental benchmark of the week. The agency has once again downgraded its forecasts: global oil supply in 2026 is expected to drop by 4.3 million b/d — to 102 million b/d, as production growth in the Americas (+1.4 million b/d) only partially offsets losses in the Middle East and Russia. Production in Gulf countries recovered in July to 23.9 million b/d, but remains 8.3 million b/d below pre-war levels. Demand is also under pressure: due to high fuel prices and breakdowns in logistics, global consumption in 2026 is projected to decline by 1.6 million b/d — the most significant declines are expected in Asia and the Middle East. Nevertheless, the agency sees a passing of the “bottom”: in Q4, demand is expected to return to growth, and in 2027, assuming de-escalation, supply is set to jump by 8.3 million b/d — to 110.3 million b/d, resulting in a market surplus.
OPEC+: Quota Increase Cycle Complete, a Pause Ahead
The OPEC+ alliance approved the last increase in quotas for the current cycle — by 188 thousand b/d starting in September, during its meeting on August 2. With this move, seven key participants (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) have completed the phased rollback of the voluntary reduction of 1.65 million b/d agreed upon in 2023. Formally, Russia’s quota for September will be 9.949 million b/d, and Saudi Arabia’s will be 10.478 million b/d. However, under current military risks and logistical constraints, increases are largely “paper” in nature: actual production in several countries remains significantly below allowed levels. According to delegates, the alliance plans to pause in Q4 — quotas are likely to be frozen until negotiations for the 2027 deal parameters begin. The internal stability of the group remains in question: the UAE has exited OPEC and OPEC+, and Iraq is publicly seeking an increase in its individual quota.
Geopolitics: The Strait of Hormuz — Major Risk for Global Energy
The US-Iran diplomatic track remains at a stalemate. The ceasefire memorandum signed in mid-June effectively collapsed a month later: attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz resumed, and the conflict extended to the Red Sea, where Houthi forces are attacking vessels near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Washington is intensifying economic pressure on Tehran, including the expansion of sanctions and a naval blockade of Iranian oil exports. For the global market, this means that the “risk premium” in oil and LNG prices remains: under normal conditions, about one-fifth of global oil supplies and a significant portion of Qatari LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any progress in negotiations could quickly shave $10–15 off the price per barrel — conversely, new escalations threaten a return to spring highs, when Brent rose to $120.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Supply Deficits
The European gas market remains tense. EU underground storage is only filled to 55–58% — a record low for seasonal levels and approximately 22 percentage points below the five-year average. The target fill level by November 1 has been lowered from 90% to 80%, but even achieving this is uncertain: injection rates are lagging behind schedule, LNG imports are 20–25% below the multi-year average, and the recovery of Qatari cargo supplies through the Strait of Hormuz is proceeding cautiously. Additional pressure comes from the extension of the emergency shutdown at the Norwegian Ormen Lange field until February 2027, which removes over 1 billion cubic meters from the winter balance. TTF prices are fluctuating in the range of €55–62 per MWh, remaining roughly twice as high as at the beginning of the year. Analysts warn: if injection does not accelerate, the market will begin to factor in winter scarcity as early as September, reminiscent of the 2021 scenario.
Power Sector and Renewables: AI Data Centers Reshape Energy Balance
In the global power sector, the main structural driver remains demand from artificial intelligence. Data center consumption in the US has risen from 23 GW in 2023 to around 42 GW in 2026, and by 2030, they could account for more than 10% of all American electricity. This is changing the investment logic of the industry:
- Hyperscalers are entering into long-term contracts for nuclear generation — from reviving energy blocks to agreements for thousands of megawatts of “carbon-free” capacity;
- The commissioning of solar and wind capacities continues to set records, but load growth rates are already catching up with the pace of renewables construction;
- Deficiencies in grid capacities and prolonged connection times (“time-to-power”) are delaying the launch of new sites by 1.5–2 years and stimulating the development of microgrids, storage systems, and self-generation.
For investors, this signals a multi-year cycle of capital investments in generation of all types, networks, and energy storage systems.
Coal: An Unexpected Beneficiary of Energy Deficits
The coal sector is experiencing a renaissance that few predicted just a few years ago. According to US federal statistics, coal generation in the country surged by 13% last year — demand from data centers and air conditioning during hot seasons forced energy companies to reactivate plants that were poised for closure. In Asia, coal remains a pillar of energy systems: China and India are sustaining consumption near record levels, while expensive LNG further enhances the competitiveness of coal-fired power plants. Prices for thermal coal remain relatively stable amid consistently high demand, and in the near future, coal generation is expected to maintain a significant share in the global energy balance, despite decarbonization goals.
Russia: Export Restrictions and Fuel Market Stabilization
The internal market for petroleum products in Russia remains under manual control. The government has extended the total ban on gasoline exports until January 31, 2027 — affecting both producers and traders; restrictions on diesel exports are in place until the end of August and, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, will be lifted as the balance stabilizes. The reason for these strict measures is the reduction in fuel output following drone attacks on refineries and increased seasonal demand. Wholesale and retail gasoline prices continue to rise, and market participants do not expect any significant correction before Q4. In the export segment, Russia maintains its position as the largest oil supplier to India and China, although actual production — around 9 million b/d — remains below the OPEC+ quota due to infrastructure constraints.
What Investors Should Watch: Calendar and Scenarios
Key benchmarks for participants in the energy sector over the coming weeks include:
- US-Iran Diplomacy: any signals regarding the resumption of negotiations about the Strait of Hormuz — the primary price driver for oil and LNG;
- OPEC+ Meeting in Early September: confirmation of the pause in quota increases and the first outlines of the 2027 deal;
- Gas Injection Rates into EU Storage: falling short of the target 80% by November may trigger an early “winter” rally on TTF;
- Dynamics of Global Oil Stocks: ongoing withdrawals will support backwardation and keep prices above $85;
- Russian Fuel Market: timelines for lifting diesel restrictions and stabilization of gasoline prices.
The baseline scenario for autumn anticipates sustained high prices for oil and gas amid significant volatility: the market will balance between a record deficit of physical supplies in recent years and the prospect of a sharp surplus in 2027 if de-escalation occurs in the Middle East. This period presents heightened risks for the energy sector — and at the same time, an historically high premium for effective management of those risks.
