Current Startup and Venture Capital News as of September 18, 2026: OpenAI's New Round Negotiations, Mega-Rounds in AI Development, Record Bonuses for Research Teams, New Unicorns, Valuation Gap Between Europe and the US, Transactions in India, and IPO Window Scrutiny Amid High Interest Rates
By the end of the third week of September, the global venture market is living in two realities. On one hand, the US Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, increasing them to 3.75-4.00%; the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has surpassed 5%, and 16 out of 18 committee members expect another hike by year-end. On the other hand, private capital continues to vastly overvalue AI leaders within mere months. For venture investors and funds, Friday, September 18, serves as a test: will their appetite for risk withstand the new cost of money?
Key topics in the venture agenda:
- OpenAI is in early negotiations for a round that would value the company at over $1.2 trillion.
- Factory secured $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion—three times its April assessment.
- Discovery Loop founded by Jeff Dean is seeking capital at a valuation of around $50 billion, despite lacking a product and revenue.
- New unicorns: Profound ($1.8 billion), CADDi ($1.2 billion), Thatch ($1 billion).
- Europe: the median valuation of AI startups is nearly eight times lower than that in the US.
- IPO: Holtec is expected to debut on Nasdaq on Friday, and Oura is preparing for a listing by the end of the month.
OpenAI and the Race for Trillion-Dollar Valuations
OpenAI has engaged in preliminary discussions regarding a new funding round that could value the company at over $1.2 trillion. The initiative originated from investors, and the terms of the deal may still evolve. In March, the company closed the largest private round in history—$122 billion at a $852 billion valuation—making the new benchmark a growth of about 41% in less than six months. In August, a tender offer for employee shares valued at $7 billion was conducted at the previous valuation.
The rationale is clear: IPO documents have been filed confidentially, yet the listing has been pushed to 2027, while the private round provides capital without the obligations of public disclosure. Revenue surpassed $40 billion on an annual basis in July, but 2025 closed with a net loss of $38.5 billion on revenues of about $13 billion. Competitor Anthropic, which raised $65 billion in May at a valuation of $965 billion, is reportedly preparing for a Nasdaq listing as early as this fall, and its shares are trading on the secondary market with an implied valuation of around $1.2 trillion. Whichever company goes public first will set the multiple for the entire sector.
AI Development: Factory and the Price of "Software Factories"
The startup Factory, which creates AI agents called Droids for writing, testing, reviewing, and deploying code, has raised $200 million at a $5 billion valuation. The round saw participation from Khosla Ventures, Blackstone, and Sequoia Capital, with angel investors including Marc Benioff, Brad Gerstner, and Nico Rosberg. The valuation dynamics are telling:
- April — Series C at $150 million with a $1.5 billion valuation;
- July — Extension at $120 million with a $4 billion valuation;
- September — $200 million at a $5 billion valuation, bringing total raised to over $400 million.
Clients include Nvidia, Adobe, Morgan Stanley, and Palo Alto Networks. The segment is overheated: Cognition raised over $2 billion in September at a valuation of $48 billion, while SpaceX acquired the developer Cursor for $60 billion. Venture funds will need to determine if corporate demand is sufficient for several players with the same thesis.
Team Premium: Discovery Loop and Thinking Machines
Discovery Loop, founded on August 5 by former Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean along with Sanjay Gemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals, is negotiating funding at a valuation of around $50 billion. Just weeks prior, discussions of a $1 billion round at a valuation of approximately $10 billion had taken place. The first round is led by Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures with participation from Lightspeed and Kleiner Perkins, and Alphabet is a founding investor. The company aims to automate scientific experiments, but it currently has no product or revenue. Meanwhile, Thinking Machines Lab, led by Mira Murati, is simultaneously discussing a $1 billion round at a $40 billion valuation. The market is paying not for metrics, but for access to rare research teams—this is the riskiest segment of the current cycle.
New Unicorns and Infrastructure Rounds of the Week
- Profound — $180 million Series D at a $1.8 billion valuation led by Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins, seven months after Series C; the platform helps brands appear in AI search results.
- CADDi — $114 million Series D at a $1.2 billion valuation; an AI data platform for industrial manufacturing.
- Thatch — $108 million at a $1 billion valuation from General Catalyst and Index Ventures.
- Lyte — $165 million Series C at a $1.6 billion valuation; perception systems for "physical AI."
- TAR — $120 million Series A at a $1 billion valuation from Spark Capital; autonomous energy supply for data centers.
- Crusoe and Fluidstack — more than $3 billion at an estimated valuation of around $30 billion and $1.5 billion respectively at an $18 billion valuation.
The common denominator remains: venture capital flows to where there is a shortage—computing, energy, and industrial data.
Europe: Volume Growth Amid an Eightfold Discount
According to PitchBook, the median pre-money valuation of AI startups in Europe is €8.3 million compared to €64.2 million in the US. Notably, artificial intelligence accounted for 60.2% of the value of European venture deals in the first half of the year compared to 37.8% in 2025, with total volume reaching €44 billion. Recent rounds include Integral (€18 million Series A, Mosaic Ventures and Reid Hoffman), Hackuity ($19 million Series B), and Veridion ($20 million Series A). Crane Venture Partners has closed four funds totaling $484 million. For global investors, the European discount is both a liquidity risk and an entry point.
Asia: India Increases Weekly Volumes
From September 7 to 12, 24 Indian startups raised approximately $413 million—42% more than the previous week. The leaders include space company Pixxel ($100 million Series C from Temasek and Seraphim), restaurant chain Popo Global ($56 million from Artal Asia), and brand Nua ($50 million from Peak XV Partners). Since the beginning of the year, India has raised $16.3 billion across 1,450 rounds: fewer deals but larger checks.
IPO and Macro: A Test for the IPO Window
Trading for Holtec Nuclear on Nasdaq is expected to begin on Friday under the ticker HNUC: 50 million shares priced between $15 and $18, approximately $825 million at the midpoint of the range, with a valuation of up to $10.2 billion. Demand for nuclear energy is fueled by data centers, but the sector is uneven: X-energy is trading below its IPO price, while Standard Nuclear declined on the first day. Oura is hoping for a listing by the end of September at a valuation exceeding $16 billion. The market's reaction to the Fed was muted for tech stocks: the Dow lost 1.2%, while Nasdaq remained mostly unchanged. The next benchmark will be the Bank of Japan's decision.
Russia and the CIS: A Market of Isolated Deals
According to various estimates, the Russian venture market shrank by about half in the first half of 2026, with the number of active investors dropping from 50 to 33; one methodology estimates the volume at only $29.3 million. In the CIS, 92% of investments were accounted for by the round for the Uzbek marketplace Uzum, which raised $131.5 million, with Uzbekistan responsible for 44 out of 58 deals in the region. Capital is concentrating in mature companies with verified revenue.
What This Means for Venture Investors and Funds
- The discount rate has increased, as have the valuations of leaders. The gap between AI elite and the rest of the market is expected to widen; late-stage valuations outside of AI will be revised.
- The pace of revaluation is a risk in itself. Tripling in five months demands verification of revenue retention, not just growth rates.
- Bets on teams without products are justified only within a portfolio logic and with a limited fund share.
- Geography offers arbitrage opportunities. The European discount and early Indian rounds appear more attractive compared to the overheated segments in the US.
- Liquidity will define the autumn. The debuts of Holtec and Oura will reveal whether the public market is ready to accept new offerings at yields above 5%.
The venture market is entering the final decade of September with record private valuations and the highest cost of money in three years. Startups that can demonstrate to investors not just potential, but also sound economics will emerge victorious.
