Venture Market Mid-October 2026: Record Capital Volumes, High Concentration in AI, Largest Rounds of the Week, IPO Preparations, and Signals for Funds and Investors

Venture investments in 2026 are heading towards a historical record, but the market is becoming increasingly uneven. Capital is concentrating in a small group of AI-related companies. The past week confirmed this trend: the largest rounds were raised by cloud AI infrastructure, fintech with AI products, and developers of AI agents. At the same time, the market is discussing the quality of revenues for AI startups and the sustainability of debt-financed infrastructure. Below are key events for venture investors and funds.

Macro Picture: Record Year Amidst Declining Quarterly Dynamics

According to Crunchbase, global venture investments in Q3 2026 totaled $159 billion. Approximately 6,000 startups received funding. Quarterly volume decreased by 25% compared to Q2 ($212 billion), but increased by 53% year-on-year. Over nine months, startups raised $679 billion, the highest for this period in recorded history.

• AI Share: $102 billion, or 64% of global venture capital for the quarter.
• Mega Rounds: 27 companies secured rounds of $1 billion or more. This is an absolute record: there were 16 such companies in Q2 and 14 in Q1.
• Geography: US startups accounted for $91 billion (57%), with the San Francisco Bay Area comprising 24% of the global volume.
• Stages: Late rounds totaled $105 billion (+73% year-on-year), while early rounds reached $40.6 billion (+25%).

US statistics from PitchBook and NVCA show the same trend. From January to September, the volume of venture deals in the US reached $515.8 billion, of which 82.7% went to AI companies. Notably, about 90% of the capital went into rounds of $50 million or more. For non-AI startups, the market's record hardly expands access to financing.

Key Theme of the Week: AI Infrastructure Attracts Mega Rounds

The most notable deal of the week was the Series D round for California-based cloud platform Modal, raising $750 million at a post-money valuation of $15.75 billion. The round was led by Accel, with participation from Kleiner Perkins, Menlo Ventures, General Catalyst, Redpoint, Lux Capital, and others. The company reported that its annual revenue run rate exceeded $1 billion, with platform usage tripling since May.

Investors are funding not only computing but also adjacent segments of AI infrastructure:

1. Salience Labs (Oxford) raised $125 million in a Series B round led by Bullhound Capital, with participation from AMD Ventures and Intel Capital. The company is developing optical switches for GPU clusters.
2. Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) received strategic investments led by Siemens, reportedly over $100 million. The company has become a "unicorn" and is building a supercapacitor manufacturing facility in the US for data centers.
3. Labelbox announced Series E funding exceeding $100 million, including a credit line. The funds will be used for reinforcement learning tools and corporate AI agents.
4. Tamr secured $21 million in growth investments from Volition Capital for managing corporate data for AI systems.

The public market, meanwhile, is sending a warning signal. On October 14, shares of AI cloud provider CoreWeave plummeted amid concerns over borrowing costs and the sustainability of debt-expanded infrastructure. For venture funds, this serves as an argument to differentiate between companies with proven demand and projects whose profitability depends on future capacity utilization.

Fintech: Ramp Valued at $16 Billion Increase in Four Months

According to Bloomberg, fintech platform Ramp raised approximately $1.85 billion at an estimated valuation of around $60 billion pre-investments. The round was led by Dragoneer and Thrive Capital, with a significant check from Founders Fund. In June, the company raised $750 million at a valuation of $44 billion. Ramp serves over 70,000 companies, and its annual revenue had reportedly exceeded $1.5 billion by summer. The company did not comment on the round.

This deal highlights the consolidation of the corporate expense management segment. Ramp's nearest competitor, Brex, was acquired by Capital One earlier this year. Ramp is enhancing the AI components of its products, which directly supports its valuation.

AI Agents and Geopolitics: Manus Raises Over $500 Million

Butterfly Effect, the parent company of AI agent developer Manus, closed a round of over $500 million. Co-investors included Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with participation from Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund. This is the first financing since Beijing forced Meta to abandon its intention to acquire Manus for more than $2 billion. The valuation remains undisclosed, although prior reports mentioned negotiations at a level of $4 billion.

The Manus case illustrates that regulatory risk in cross-border AI deals has become a distinct line item in due diligence. Investors need to consider not only technology but also jurisdiction, capital structure, and the potential for exit through strategic sales.

Deep Tech, Biotech, and Defense: Capital for Long Cycles

Aside from AI, venture funds continue to finance capital-intensive technologies with long payback horizons:

• OMass Therapeutics (Oxford) raised $310 million in an oversubscribed Series C round, led by Bain Capital Life Sciences, Forbion, and Novo Holdings. The funds will be used for clinical research on drugs for endocrinology and immunology.
• Oratomic closed a Series B round of $475 million for developing fault-tolerant quantum computers.
• Sabi secured $50 million in seed funding led by Khosla Ventures. The company is creating a wearable interface for brain-AI interaction.
• Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for maneuverable spacecraft to protect orbital infrastructure.
• Tessolve Semiconductor (India) received $75 million from Vector Line Capital for international expansion through acquisitions.

Funds and LPs: OrbiMed Raises $3 Billion

The funding side remains active as well. Healthcare-focused investor OrbiMed announced the closing of $3 billion across two funds. OrbiMed Private Investments X raised over $1.9 billion for venture deals in life sciences in the US and Europe. OrbiMed Asia Partners VI secured over $1 billion for growth and venture investments in Asia. In the US, according to PitchBook-NVCA, new managers have closed 81 first-time funds totaling $4.9 billion since the beginning of the year. LP attraction still favors large and established teams.

IPO Window: DayOne Files Application, Anthropic Clarifies Timeline

The public offerings market remains a primary channel for venture funds to return capital. This week:

1. Singapore-based AI data center operator DayOne Data Centers filed for an IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker DODC. Underwriters include Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, BofA Securities, and Citigroup.
2. According to media reports, Anthropic may begin its roadshow during the week of November 9, roughly a month later than initially planned. The expected valuation is $1.8–2 trillion. The company has not officially confirmed the timeline.
3. The example of SpaceX, the largest IPO in history (June 2026, valuation $1.77 trillion), serves as a reminder of the volatility post-IPO. Reports suggest that by the end of July, the company's shares lost about half of their peak value.

Russia and CIS: Market Contracts, Focus on Strategics

The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to a report from the Moscow Venture Fund, investors committed 4.6 billion rubles in the first half of 2026, nearly 48% less year-on-year. The capital shortage is exacerbated by a tight monetary policy. Investors are concentrating on robotics, IT, and artificial intelligence. The main exit strategy is selling a stake to a strategic investor rather than pursuing an IPO. The Moscow Venture Fund announced an allocation of 250 million rubles to technology companies and expects about 1 billion rubles in co-investments.

Risks and Takeaways for Venture Investors

Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, pointed out the issue of "revenue quality" in AI. He suggests that a significant portion of revenues for AI companies comes from other AI startups, which themselves rely on venture capital. From this, there are several practical takeaways for funds:

• Distinguish run-rate from ARR. The annual revenue rate in pay-as-you-go infrastructure does not equate to contractual recurring revenue.
• Analyze the deal structure. The headline amount of a round may include credit lines and secondary sales of shares.
• Account for client concentration. Dependence on venture-backed AI companies creates a chain of interconnected risks.
• Factor in regulatory risk. The Manus case shows that exit through a sale may be blocked at the state level.
• Diversify beyond AI. Biotech, quantum technologies, defense, and industrial deep tech provide alternative sources of returns.

The week’s conclusion: the global startup and venture investment market remains generous but increasingly selective. Capital is flowing to companies that control the infrastructure, data, and customer relationships necessary for AI commercialization. For funds, the key selection criteria in Q4 2026 are revenue quality, discipline in valuations, and realistic exit pathways.