In preparation for the scheduled maintenance work at refineries, commodity stocks have been formed, remaining at a high level and exceeding last year's figures, the Ministry of Energy reported to “Ъ.” In readiness for the sowing campaign, oil companies have agreed on the volume of fuel supply to agricultural producers, they noted. “The Ministry of Energy will continue to monitor the market dynamics for motor fuel, with necessary regulatory measures being adopted based on the emerging balance of supply and demand,” the ministry added.
The price of summer diesel at the St. Petersburg exchange on March 10 rose by 1.96% to 60.53 thousand rubles per ton, according to the European part of Russia index. Interseasonal diesel increased by 1.1% to 60.63 thousand rubles per ton. This marks the highest levels for both fuel types since mid-October 2025. From March 2 to 6, wholesale prices for summer diesel rose by 5.6%, and for interseasonal diesel by 7.7%.
Exchange prices for diesel in the first week of March shifted to an upward trend amid external uncertainty and expectations of seasonal demand increases, according to a review by the National Exchange Price Agency.
Analysts note that market participants are beginning to build inventory in anticipation of increased consumption from the agriculture and construction sectors. However, despite the onset of calendar spring, actual demand remains restrained due to weather conditions that complicate logistics and slow economic activities, the review points out. Meanwhile, total diesel sales remain relatively low at 57.9 thousand tons per day, which traditionally supports rising quotes, analysts indicate. Oil companies are reallocating volumes in favor of summer diesel, with the minimum planned sales for March set at 310.9 thousand tons, which is 84% higher than February’s figures.
According to Andrey Dyachenko, the chief analyst for oil markets, petroleum products, and macroeconomics at Proleum, snowfalls might push back agricultural activity by two to three weeks, but the reserves of summer diesel are already in place, making further accumulation unfeasible at this time.
Dmitry Skryabin, a portfolio manager at Alpha Capital Management Company, does not see the current sales volume as a factor for further price increases. He believes that the scheduled spring maintenance at refineries, if according to plans, will not significantly affect the market. Moreover, he adds, last year's experience has shown ample reserves to account for potential disruptions. Managing partner of NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, notes that Russia produces diesel with a substantial surplus, hence the threat of shortages remains low even considering potential unscheduled refinery outages.
The dynamics of diesel exchange prices this spring will also be influenced by the situation with damping payments, says Sergey Tereshkin, general director of Open Oil Market. The higher the subsidies, he explains, the lower the incentives for oil companies to raise prices, whereas a reduction in payments prompts companies to offset losses through increasing wholesale prices. In February, oil companies transferred 18.8 billion rubles to the budget through the damping mechanism, according to Ministry of Finance materials. In January, payments from the budget to oil companies amounted to 16.9 billion rubles.
In March, amid rising external prices for petroleum products, the situation may shift in favor of producers, notes Sergey Tereshkin. Without an adjustment to the damping formula, quotes may once again exceed 70 thousand rubles per ton over the year, he adds.
In January, according to Euler's analysts, the export profitability of diesel for Russian producers surpassed that of domestic supplies for the first time in at least 2024, partly due to declining exchange prices (see “Ъ” from February 13). According to Reuters, in January, maritime exports of diesel and gas oil from Russia increased by 19% compared to December, reaching 4 million tons. In February, shipments decreased to 2.85 million tons due to challenging icy conditions in Baltic ports and unscheduled refinery repairs. Currently, only producers are allowed to export diesel, while others face a ban until July 31.
Source: Kommersant
