The global oil market, accustomed to turbulence, is witnessing a significant reshuffle of spheres of influence. Previously, the Americans attempted to oust Russian oil from India using Venezuelan supplies, but the onset of conflict in Iran halted this process. As a result, the current supply shortages from the Persian Gulf are opening new markets for Russia, while the long-term prospects for Venezuelan oil remain doubtful—until a self-sufficient player, designated by Western curators, emerges there.
Thus, the thesis propagated by overseas media that Caracas will displace Moscow from the Indian market is unfounded. Venezuelan oil is not only under sanctions but also under U.S. control. Discussing a reliable system at this point seems premature. Meanwhile, Indian buyers are not rushing to abandon liquid fuels from Russia. According to Bloomberg, Delhi plans to notify Washington of its intention to increase imports of Russian oil, primarily due to the crisis in the Persian Gulf, which has affected supplies to Indian refineries.
In essence, while markets are reeling from the consequences of the Middle Eastern crisis, India—having become Russia’s “safe haven” and key sales market since 2022—finds itself once again at the center of a geopolitical triangle. Business headlines are filled with forecasts that Venezuelan oil will soon replace Russian barrels in Indian ports. However, historical context and cold statistics tell a different story: until recently, Russia was rapidly displacing Venezuela from South Asia.
In 2016, Caracas supplied 462 thousand barrels per day (b/d) to India, accounting for 11% of its imports, while Russian presence was a mere 0.1%. U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's PDVSA in 2019 and Moscow's subsequent pivot eastward drastically changed the situation. By the fall of 2025, Russia’s share of Indian imports soared to 33% (1.7 million b/d), while supplies from Venezuela effectively dwindled to zero. The situation began to shift only in early 2026, when Washington eased sanctions, allowing American companies to engage in transactions involving Venezuelan raw materials.
According to independent expert Kirill Rodionov, Venezuela will increase its presence in India for two key reasons. The first is the lifting of export restrictions from “the shadows” following a decision by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), alleviating the need to use non-registered vessels. The second reason is China's departure from the Venezuelan oil market, which ceased purchasing Venezuelan oil starting January 2026.
“With China stepping back from Venezuelan oil supplies, Caracas needs a new market, and India presents such an opportunity,” emphasizes our interlocutor.
He notes that India will remain the only significant growing market globally amidst stagnation in demand in Europe, the U.S., and China.
Despite this, the expert community urges caution. Direct shipments from Russia to India indeed plummeted to minimum levels since 2022 (505 thousand b/d in January 2026 compared to 1.49 million b/d in November 2025), but this is more a result of tightened U.S. control than a success for competitors. Russian oil finds its way through alternate routes: over 900 thousand b/d of Russian crude passed through Egypt and Singapore in January this year.
Rodionov believes that Russian supplies will not be entirely replaced. He outlines two stages in the development of the situation: the current downturn followed by a subsequent recovery as geopolitical issues stabilize. “Given that oil production in Venezuela is quite low, its presence in the Indian market this year will not significantly hinder Russian oil supplies. I do not foresee strong competition due to the insufficient supply levels in Venezuela to replace Russian oil,” asserts Rodionov. He predicts Venezuela might reach production levels of 3 million b/d only by the early 2030s, provided that American investments flow in and PDVSA is decentralized.
However, logistics flexibility remains a key advantage for Russian companies. Maria Nikitina, founder of N. Trans Lab, describes the work of Russian logistics under uncertainty as a business phenomenon.
“The ‘shadow fleet’ created by our colleagues has become not only a factor in international politics, a point of discussion at EU summits, and a critical aspect of sanctions, but also a business and geopolitical phenomenon, becoming a household name alongside Sputnik and Kalashnikov,” she notes.
According to the expert, the response to declining Indian demand has been the rapid redirection of volumes to China.
“Russian logistics began actively transferring crude from smaller tankers to VLCC-class supertankers in the Red Sea area to reduce costs and optimize logistics on the long eastern route. From December, 6.3 to 6.9 million barrels were transshipped this way, and supplies to Chinese ports rose to 2.09 million barrels per day in February, fully compensating for the decline in Indian demand,” writes Ms. Nikitina.
The expert believes that if circumstances change tomorrow, prompt alternative solutions will be found, as the concepts of uncertainty and volatility have become a new reality for us.
However, Venezuela is not the only contender for the Indian pie. This topic is significant against the backdrop of rising market supply, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
“One of the 'sleeping tigers' is Iran, which now depends almost entirely on China—the only major market for itself. The current volume of Iranian oil supplies to China is estimated at 2 million barrels per day (b/d): should a deal be reached with the U.S., Iran will ramp up exports and redirect some volumes to other markets, including India.”
A noticeable increase in supply could also come from Saudi Arabia, where actual production levels remain over 2 million b/d below maximum capacity. Until 2022, Saudi Arabia was the leading oil supplier to India until it was supplanted by Russia in this role. For Saudi Arabia, the dynamic of OPEC+ quotas will be a crucial factor.
And the participants in the deal are likely to raise their oil production targets this year.
There is also potential for Canada to ramp up production and exports, especially considering that the Trump administration may revive the Keystone XL pipeline project, which was shelved by the Biden administration.
If approved, this pipeline would facilitate the transport of Canadian crude to the Gulf Coast for further shipment to the global market,” summarizes our interlocutor.
It is evident that the global energy map continues to be reshaped on the fly. Venezuela’s emergence in the legal market is not a death knell for Russian exports but merely the return of another significant player to a complex multilateral game. India, pursuing its own interests, will continue to diversify its supplies, pushing exporters to compete not only on price but also on logistical sophistication.
The real challenge for the industry lies not in the emergence of competitors from Caracas—if that indeed happens and is sanctioned by the U.S.—but in the overall stabilization of oil prices at low levels, which inevitably leads to reduced export revenues compared to the peak year of 2022. In this new reality, those who swiftly adapt their supply chains to the “noise” of sanctions, market fluctuations, and geopolitical storms, such as those witnessed in the Middle East, will survive.
Source: VGUDOK
