The Russian fuel market is currently facing a significant shortage of AI-95 gasoline. The reasons for this shortage include unforeseen repairs at refineries, a decline in primary processing, and a seasonal rise in consumption. Market participants report that refineries are compelled to redistribute production in favor of the more socially significant AI-92 gasoline. Consequently, demand for AI-95 is growing faster than supply ahead of the summer season, with off-exchange volumes being sold at a 10% premium; however, even at this price point, sources indicate that purchasing fuel remains challenging. According to a report by the National Exchange Price Agency, on May 8, trading resulted in the sale of 32,640 tons of gasoline, a decrease of 5.9% compared to the previous trading day. Sales of AI-92 dropped by 8.9% to 20,340 tons, while those of AI-95 increased by 1.5% to 12,240 tons. The volume of unsatisfied solvent demand for AI-92 amounted to 23,460 tons, while that for AI-95 was 26,340 tons. An industry source informed that a shortage of AI-95 has already materialized in anticipation of the high consumption season. According to this source, the demand for AI-95 rises faster than for AI-92 during the summer, as consumers use vehicles specifically designed for 95-octane fuel during the vacation season. The shortage is attributed to unplanned repairs at major refineries and a reduction in petroleum product output. In this situation, the source continues, oil companies primarily focus their resources on supporting their own distribution structures. Andrey Dyachenko, the chief analyst at Proleum, also notes the scarcity of AI-95 volumes in the exchange market. He assesses that primary processing has been significantly reduced compared to planned levels, forcing oil companies to choose which grade of gasoline to support. However, he considers the situation to be "far from critical." According to his estimates, the actual fuel flow at gas stations is currently 7-10% lower than last year's levels, and existing stocks and operating capacities are sufficient to meet final demand for the time being. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) reported that no complaints regarding gasoline shortages have been received, and there is currently no fuel deficit. They also stated that the issue of fuel shortages was not raised at the recent Exchange Committee meeting. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that the situation in the domestic motor fuel market remains stable and controlled. At present, the domestic market is sufficiently stocked with light petroleum products, and the logistics of supply are functioning reliably, with no recorded disruptions in the availability of fuel in the regions. "The industry is prepared for the seasonal increase in demand to proceed as scheduled due to measures taken by the government, including a ban on gasoline exports, as well as ongoing restrictions on diesel fuel exports for non-producers," they added. A market source pointed out a shift in fuel consumption patterns in Russia, with the mass renewal of the vehicle fleet, mainly through Chinese models that are sensitive to product quality, leading to a sharp increase in demand for AI-95. According to the source, the notion of the "social significance" of AI-92 has become outdated, as AI-95 has become the primary product. Its production and logistics have been complicated due to incidents at refineries ahead of the peak season. Additionally, the growth of domestic auto tourism during the May holidays is placing further pressure on the market. Exchange quotes remain relatively stable due to the current mechanism that limits price increases and decreases to plus 0.01% and minus 3% from the current market price. As of the trading results on May 8, the price of AI-92 gasoline rose by 0.01% to 65,990 rubles per ton, while AI-95 increased by 0.16% to 71,890 rubles per ton. Meanwhile, off-exchange volumes are being sold at a premium of around 10% to the exchange market price; however, even in this channel, the supply remains quite limited, according to one source. "Acquiring AI-95 on the exchange is becoming extremely difficult," they noted. "Demand is exponentially—possibly more than ten times—exceeding supply." Sergey Tereshkin, the General Director of Open Oil Market, also points to the recovery of the automobile market, which is leading to rising gasoline prices and a need for greater production. He also notes that AI-95 is not included in the calculations for the damping mechanism—subsidies are tied to the prices of AI-92 and diesel. Therefore, the risks of price increases for AI-95 are always higher, regardless of the physical availability of fuel, adds Mr. Tereshkin. The analytical group "UfaOil" notes that the increase in gasoline supply at the beginning of May was facilitated by the resumption of trading by major refineries. However, analysts continue that the volumes later declined again, partly due to the repeated suspension of exchange sales by some refineries. Additional pressure on the market is exerted by prolonged delivery times and a reduction in available supply in bulk wholesale, experts add. Delivery times increased on average by two to four weeks at the beginning of May, according to a market source. They estimate that unplanned repairs at major enterprises could take at least a month. Such a situation, the source adds, does not allow market participants to form long-term reserves, increasing the risks of fuel shortages in the summer. Source: Kommersant