From April 2 to July 31, a ban on gasoline exports is implemented in Russia for all market participants. Despite a reduction in production within the country, the prices for gasoline, which had been rising since the beginning of the year, immediately began to decline as demand increased with the arrival of spring. The rise in global prices for oil and petroleum products, including gasoline, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, has created a desire among producers to sell gasoline in foreign markets. Conversely, these high global prices also allow oil producers to receive significant subsidies from the government. Forbes explored the reasons behind the rising gasoline prices, the purpose of the export ban, its duration, and how it will impact Russian producers. On April 2, the Russian government published a decree imposing a full ban on gasoline exports until July 31, 2026. "This decision was made to maintain stable conditions in the domestic fuel market during the high seasonal demand and agricultural fieldwork, as well as in response to the rise in global oil prices due to the existing geopolitical situation in the Middle East," the government announcement stated. The restriction will not apply to supplies under international intergovernmental agreements, according to the decree. In 2025, a complete export ban on gasoline was introduced on August 31 due to a sharp rise in wholesale and retail prices, remaining in effect until the end of February 2026. The ban was lifted due to falling prices, according to Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the petroleum products marketplace Open Oil Market. Although prices began to rise again from January 12, 2026, the first day of trading on the St. Petersburg exchange that year, they remained lower than in August when the ban was first implemented. On February 27, just before the embargo was lifted, A-92 gasoline was priced at 59,263 rubles per ton, having decreased by 13.3% compared to the last trading day before the export ban on August 29, which saw a price of 68,435 rubles per ton. A-95 gasoline fell even more sharply by 20.7%, down to 62,677 rubles per ton from 79,054 rubles. Since 2022, Russian customs statistics have been closed. According to the latest available data, in 2021, the country exported 4.4 million tons of automotive gasoline, 24.5% less than in 2020. The total production volume in 2021 amounted to 40.8 million tons. Data on gasoline production has been closed since 2024. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak estimated the 2024 volume at 44.1 million tons and expected it to be maintained or show slight growth in 2025. Forbes sent inquiries to major Russian oil companies — Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Gazprom Neft — asking whether they had ceased gasoline exports, but had not received replies by the time of publication. On March 27, Novak instructed the Ministry of Energy to introduce a full ban on gasoline exports following a meeting with representatives from oil companies and relevant agencies. The day before, on March 26, Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft, suggested implementing a full export ban on gasoline for two to three months. He stated to journalists that, in his opinion, this measure was necessary to prevent fuel from being drained from the Russian market to external markets where prices are significantly higher. **How Gasoline Prices Rose** Gasoline prices, which had been increasing since the beginning of the year, began to decline on March 25, likely following the initial reports that authorities were discussing introducing an embargo. On March 24, prices for A-92 gasoline peaked, rising by 25% since the beginning of the year to 68,504 rubles per ton. A-95 gasoline increased even more dramatically by 31%, reaching 77,483 rubles per ton. By April 2, A-92 was trading at 65,196 rubles per ton, a decrease of 4.8% from the peak, while A-95 was priced at 70,031 rubles per ton, down 3.4%. On March 19, a week before Novak's meeting with oil producers, Anton Rubtsov, Director of the Oil and Gas Complex Department at the Ministry of Energy, claimed that gasoline stocks in the country amounted to 2 million tons, more than the previous year. He also indicated that the ministry expected an increase in oil refinery processing volumes. However, prices continued to rise. The increase was influenced by a hike in excise taxes on January 1, 2026, by 5.1% and an increase in VAT from 20% to 22%, according to Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the commodity markets analysis center at the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF). Additional price increases were caused by scheduled repairs at major oil refineries and drone attacks that forced facilities to reduce processing, he noted. The conflict in the Middle East also contributed to rising global prices for both oil and petroleum products. The surge in exchange prices for gasoline was linked to oil producers attempting to recover losses, according to Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. Payments to oil producers under the so-called damping mechanism in January 2026 amounted to 16.9 billion rubles, down 90% compared to January 2025, when they reached 156.4 billion rubles. In February 2026, oil companies paid the budget 18.8 billion rubles. The damping payments are made to oil companies from the budget as compensation for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. If the calculated export price of fuel, as determined by the Federal Antimonopoly Service, is lower than domestic prices, oil producers are required to pay this difference to the budget. The formula for calculating damping payments is quite complex, Tereshkin points out, and is influenced not only by the difference between the calculated export and domestic prices but also by other special coefficients, such as gasoline prices in Rotterdam, average handling costs in Russian ports, sea transportation costs, and the price of benchmark Brent crude oil. According to Tereshkin, informal agreements between fuel producers and regulators may also have influenced the rise in exchange prices, as it is speculated that oil producers might have been instructed to restrain fuel price increases at the end of the previous year. This is indirectly supported by the fact that prices fell at the end of 2025, he notes. "Price restraint was intended to ensure regulators had relatively decent inflation metrics by the end of 2025, but it resulted in a price spike at the beginning of 2026," he explains. Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 6% in January from 5.6% in December and remained high at 5.9% in February. **Why the Ban is Necessary** The decision to ban gasoline exports was made considering two factors, according to Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist at Aricapital. Firstly, with the arrival of spring, demand for gasoline increases, as significantly more private cars are used than in winter. Simultaneously, the expert notes that production is declining due to drone strikes on oil refineries and energy infrastructure. By imposing restrictions, the government attempted to prevent a potential shortage in the domestic market. However, Suverov believes that prices will continue to rise due to inflation. "The saturation of the domestic market may contribute to some slowdown in growth," he adds. The export ban will have minimal impact on increasing physical supply in the domestic market, according to Shevyrenkov from IEF. He states that Russia exports a relatively small volume of gasoline, with the majority sent under intergovernmental agreements primarily to Mongolia, as well as to countries of the Eurasian Economic Union: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, which will not be affected by the ban. Export volume data and its destinations are closed, notes Shevyrenkov. However, based on his calculations, besides supplies under intergovernmental agreements, Russia could export about 100,000 tons of gasoline monthly while domestic consumption exceeds 3 million tons per month. He believes that the ban will limit the impact of high global gasoline prices on the Russian market, as producers will lose an attractive export alternative. Since global oil prices remained high throughout March due to the conflict in the Middle East, ranging from $80 to $110 per barrel, and damping payments are formed with a one-month lag, producers can expect significant payments in April, according to Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. He estimated that this month, oil producers could receive more than 200 billion rubles from the budget. This may likely slow the rise in exchange prices in April and May. However, due to the seasonal increase in demand, prices are expected to rise despite the export ban, Tereshkin does not rule out. "Much will depend on whether regulators revise the damping formula to ensure Russian oil producers receive high subsidies if global petroleum product prices begin to decline," Tereshkin states. In October 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing oil producers to receive guaranteed compensation, but its effectiveness expires on May 1, 2026, and a decision must be made on how the damping payment scheme will operate thereafter. Despite significant damping payments, producers still faced the temptation to sell some batches of gasoline abroad due to high global prices, Shevyrenkov from IEF indicates. Suverov from Aricapital believes that companies, even when receiving substantial compensation, might continue exporting gasoline to maintain relationships with foreign clients and earn revenues in foreign currency, which they could use to purchase equipment or spare parts. If the situation regarding attacks on oil refineries and port infrastructure does not improve by the end of the export ban, the embargo may need to be extended, Suverov concludes. Shevyrenkov from IEF also considers a potential extension of the embargo if the conflict in the Middle East drags on. Source: Forbes