The USA Seized the Moment and Increased Its Energy Resource Exports to Record Levels. They Began Capturing OPEC Markets, Their Main Opponent in the Global Oil Market. On the Other Hand, They Inject Even More American LNG into the Market. This Allows Local Companies to Earn Billions of Additional Dollars. How Long Will This Success Last?
The USA capitalized on the conflict in the Middle East and sharply increased its oil, oil product, and LNG exports. They are claiming market share from OPEC, which, due to the military situation, has inevitably reduced its energy resource exports. How did the USA manage to profit from the conflict it instigated in the Middle East?
US oil exports reached a historic high of 12.9 million barrels per day, with over 60% being oil products (as of early April). Maritime exports are expected to reach a record 9.6 million barrels per day in April, and shipments to Asia will nearly double compared to pre-war levels – to 2.5 million barrels per day, according to analytics firm Kpler. American companies are reaping substantial profits from this, given that prices have risen along with export volumes. The value of crude oil and oil products exports increased by $32 billion compared to pre-war figures, boosting corporate profits and tax revenues, as reported by ROI.
LNG shipments have also surged sharply. In March, exports hit an all-time high. According to Kpler, the combined export of oil and LNG from the USA to Asia in March and April increased by approximately 30% compared to the same period last year.
The growth of the US share in the oil market is attributed to situational factors, while the LNG market growth is structural, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
“The increase in US LNG exports is a consequence of new capacities coming online. Just a few days ago, the Golden Pass facility completed its first export shipment, marking the tenth LNG production site in the United States. By 2025, US LNG exports are projected to rise to 154 billion cubic meters from 122 billion cubic meters in 2024. This year, export volumes will reach even higher levels, driven by rising demand in external markets,” says Tereshkin.
“Americans are indeed producing more LNG. They maximized the output of existing facilities and launched new ones. Additionally, with the heating season over domestically, current consumption has dropped, and the surplus volumes have been diverted to exports,” says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
However, the USA has not increased its own oil production volumes. So how did exports grow? “This happened because they increased imports of one type of oil while boosting exports of another type and oil products. The USA imports medium-sulfur and fairly heavy oil while exporting, conversely, light oil and oil products (made from heavy oil). They import more from Canada and Mexico, while exporting by sea to countries that previously received Middle Eastern oil, which is now unavailable,” explains Igor Yushkov.
On one hand, private oil companies in the USA are reaping additional profits in the current situation. On the other hand, this creates problems for the American populace and the US economy as a whole, as domestic prices for fuel rise in response.
Unlike the gas market, companies in the oil market have the choice of where to sell their goods – to the domestic or foreign market, and this is a major issue for the current US administration,
says Yushkov.
As the US share of the global market grows, OPEC's share declines. According to the IEA, in March 2026, oil production in Saudi Arabia dropped by 3.15 million barrels per day compared to the previous month; in the UAE, the reduction was 1.27 million barrels per day, in Kuwait – 1.35 million, and in Iraq – exactly 3 million. The total volume of these cuts is comparable to Russia's oil production level of 8.96 million barrels per day in March 2026, notes Tereshkin.
Even before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ began raising production quotas by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day to regain its positions in the global market. Many OPEC+ participants were unhappy about having to reduce production prior, which was exploited by competitors, including the USA and Guyana, who ramped up production.
Now, of course, the situation is different.
“Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil flow from classic OPEC countries – Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, plus Iran – has decreased, and their market share has indeed shrunk. But not due to an evolutionary path, but simply because their oil cannot effectively reach the global market.
However, once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, we will see OPEC+ resuming its quota increases,” concludes Yushkov.
The fact is, Asian countries do not quite favor light American crude. Asian refineries are designed to operate with denser and sulfurous Middle Eastern oil rather than lighter American grades. The refineries can use light oil, but the process becomes less efficient and profitable. Therefore, once the conflict resolves, everything will return to the way it was. The elation of American oil producers will be short-lived.
Source: Vedomosti
