A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for more than five weeks will lead to an increase in the price of Brent crude oil to $150 per barrel and above. This estimate is provided in the review by analysts from the consulting firm B1 (formerly EY in Russia). The authors of the review present three potential scenarios for the development of the conflict in the Middle East: "Prolonged escalation," "Localization," and "Complete blockade." According to the first scenario, the continuation of the current situation—limited traffic and regular attacks on vessels—over the course of several months will lead to a reduction in oil production in the Persian Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day by February 2026, maintaining the oil price above $100 per barrel. In the scenario of "Localization," where traffic is restored within a few weeks and the strait is patrolled by the forces of interested countries, the oil price will remain at no higher than $100 per barrel. The third scenario involves a complete cessation of shipping in the strait, including the passage of Iranian vessels. This will lead to a significantly greater decline in production in the Middle East (B1 does not provide a specific forecast) and a substantial oil deficit in the Asia-Pacific region, the analysts note. The specified timeframe of five weeks for the blockade's impact on oil prices is due to the fact that tankers from the Persian Gulf take up to 2.5 weeks to reach buyers in East and Southeast Asia, explained Alexey Lavrukhin, head of the B1 analytical center, to Vedomosti. After five weeks, the cessation of supplies will become obvious, leading to active oil withdrawals from storage and a swift search for new suppliers, he noted. According to B1's estimates, in 2023–2025, 20–25% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, alternative routes—such as the East-West pipelines in Saudi Arabia (capacity of 5–7 million barrels per day), Habshan-Fujairah in the UAE (1.5–1.8 million barrels per day), and Kirkuk–Ceyhan in Iraq and Turkey (1.6 million barrels per day)—allow for the export of only 50% of the volumes transported via the Strait of Hormuz. Following the onset of military conflict between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iranian military forces in March, but, according to the MarineTraffic vessel tracking system, some vessels were still able to pass through. Iran does not obstruct vessels from friendly countries, such as China, from passing through the strait; however, most exporters are avoiding this route due to high risks, the B1 review states. Disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf and mutual attacks on infrastructure by conflict participants have led to a significant decrease in oil production in the region. According to Vedomosti's calculations based on OPEC data, oil production in the Persian Gulf countries dropped by 33%, or by 8 million barrels per day, in March 2026 compared to February of this year, reaching 16.5 million barrels per day (see the publication from April 14). The parties announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8, with Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz. On April 11-12, the first round of U.S.-Iranian negotiations took place in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, resulting in no outcomes. On April 12, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. would block the strait to prevent Iranian vessels and those that paid Iran for transit from passing through. The blockade began on April 13, and on April 18, Iran stated it would close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. blockade. The second round of U.S.-Iranian negotiations, scheduled for April 21, has not yet taken place. At the same time, Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the maritime blockade of the strait. It is not complete, as some vessels, including Iranian ones, are still passing through. According to Kpler data reported by CNN, from April 24 to 27, 17 vessels, including four tankers, passed through the strait. Bloomberg notes that at the beginning of this week, vessel movement through the strait almost completely stopped. The price of Brent crude oil has held at around $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026. According to ICE exchange data, on April 27, June futures for Brent oil were priced at $108 per barrel. On February 27, before the start of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the oil price was $72.5 per barrel. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, considers a rise in oil prices to $150 per barrel in 2026 an unrealistic scenario. In his opinion, disruptions in crude supply from the Middle East will be compensated by emergency reserves from China and other countries. As a result, the average price of Brent oil this year will not exceed $80 per barrel. Senior analyst at investment bank Sinara Alexey Kokin and analyst at Finam Nikolay Dudchenko believe that a reduction in oil production in the Persian Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day compared to February will occur as early as April. According to Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, this month’s production decline will amount to 9.1 million barrels per day. In the event of a longer blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, he predicts the decline could reach 10-12 million barrels per day. Dudchenko suggests that the figure could even reach 14 million barrels per day without a complete blockade of the strait. In these circumstances, oil prices could rise to $110–120 per barrel, Kokin forecasts. Dudchenko believes that if the current situation persists, prices may reach $120–130 per barrel, while prices could soar to $150 per barrel in case of shipping problems in the Red Sea. Kasatkin believes that if the blockade of the strait continues, prices could reach $145–155 per barrel, and in the event of escalating situations involving strikes on oil infrastructure, oil prices could soar to $200–215 per barrel. The formation of an oil deficit in the market is occurring gradually, and a deficit in some Asian countries is already becoming noticeable, Kasatkin notes. In the most critical situation, he believes, are Pakistan (with 15 days of crude reserves, 85% dependency on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz) and Bangladesh (12 days), while India (30 days) and Taiwan (45 days) are in a "zone of increased risk." According to Kokin, aside from Pakistan and Bangladesh, the most serious problems could arise in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. Source: Vedomosti