The federal budget received 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenues (OGR) in January, missing the planned amount by 17.4 billion, as reported on the Ministry of Finance's website, published on February 4. Compared to January of last year, the figure was halved (when OGR amounted to 789.1 billion rubles), and relative to December 2025, there was a 12.1% decline (447.8 billion rubles). Moreover, the oil and gas revenues in January recorded the lowest outcome in the past five and a half years – the last time they were lower was in July 2020 (340 billion rubles). In February, the ministry anticipates a further decrease in additional OGR by 209.4 billion rubles. From February 6 to March 5, the Ministry of Finance plans to sell foreign currency and gold totaling 226.8 billion rubles (11.9 billion rubles daily), according to their message.

In January, the average monthly price for Urals oil was $40.95 per barrel, according to the Ministry of Economic Development's data. Throughout the previous year, this price steadily decreased, falling from $67.66 per barrel in January to $39.1 per barrel in December. A slight increase was recorded in June - July ($59.84 per barrel and $60.37 per barrel, respectively), but the negative trend resumed afterward. According to the September forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual price for Urals oil this year is expected to be $59 per barrel.

However, experts believe that the ministry's expectations are somewhat exaggerated, as reported by Vedomosti on February 2. The average annual price for Urals oil may settle around $50 per barrel due to persistently low global prices (specifically, the average annual price for Brent oil around $60–63 per barrel), along with a reduction in the discounts on Russian export oil prices to levels observed at the beginning of 2025 – to $8–10, as noted by analysts from ACRA in their macroeconomic forecast. Consequently, the federal budget could potentially miss out on 0.5–0.7% of GDP in revenues compared to the current plan, with the budget deficit ranging from 2.2–2.7% of GDP (the Ministry of Finance's plan indicates a deficit of 1.6% of GDP for this year). The latest macroeconomic survey by the Bank of Russia confirms the findings of ACRA analysts – the respondents expect the average annual price for Urals oil to reach $50 per barrel (the figure was at $54 per barrel in December).

Beginning this year, the budget rule's cut-off price for oil will gradually decrease by $1 per year, reaching $55 per barrel by 2030. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov mentioned in September that the previously established cut-off threshold of $60 per barrel no longer "meets the challenges of the times." According to the budget rule, additional revenues from exceeding the established oil price threshold will be directed towards purchasing foreign currency and gold for subsequent accumulation in the National Welfare Fund (NWF). If revenues fall below the planned levels, sales will occur instead, in the volume necessary to cover the shortfall.

Vedomosti has sent an inquiry to the Finance Ministry.

The consistent decline in the share of oil and gas revenues reflects deeper structural changes in the country's economy and budgetary system, notes Elena Lebedinskaya, Director of the Ministry's Revenue Department (her comments were published by the ministry's press service on February 4). "As a result, the federal budget is becoming less sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices than it was 10 years ago, which enhances its resilience in conditions of external instability," she concluded. According to the federal budget law for 2026-2028, OGR this year is projected to amount to 8.9 trillion rubles (or 22% of all planned budget revenues).

Reasons for Decline
The dynamics of oil prices, which depend on international benchmarks and discounts on Russian oil prices, are crucial for OGR, reminds Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. At the end of last year, the discount for Urals compared to Brent exceeded $20 per barrel, resulting in January's figure being the lowest in five and a half years, he notes. The key factor for the increased discount is the tightening of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, leading to heightened risks for importers of Russian oil, says the expert.

However, the market gradually adapts to the new wave of restrictions, Tereshkin believes. For example, at the beginning of 2023, shortly after the EU's embargo on oil imports from Russia came into force, the Urals discount to Brent prices exceeded $25 per barrel, but then gradually returned to the $10–12 per barrel mark, he recalls. In the expert's opinion, a similar scenario will be realized throughout this year – provided that no new restrictions are introduced by the U.S. Overall, 2026 could prove even more challenging for oil and gas revenues than the previous year, according to Tereshkin. A high discount could be offset by an increase in domestic oil production and exports, but OPEC+ is unlikely to take drastic measures, especially with Brent prices already close to the $60 per barrel mark, the expert notes.

The decline in oil prices and the high discount on Urals oil prices, which reach around $25 per barrel, negatively impact the financial standing of Russian oil companies, agrees Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Investment Company. Small companies with high production and export costs face particularly difficult situations, the expert notes. Large companies with lower extraction costs are navigating the "perfect storm" more easily, he indicates. The situation with oil and gas revenues is expected to improve somewhat in February, believes Suverov. Brent prices have risen to $70 per barrel, and the ruble exchange rate may begin to decline in the near future, he clarifies. According to Rosstat data from 10 months of the previous year, the share of loss-making organizations in the oil and gas extraction sector slightly decreased – to 47.5% compared to 48.1% in the first nine months.

Several factors simultaneously influence oil and gas revenues: widening spreads, unstable oil and gas export flows (a market that can only predict demand from China among key buyers), attacks on shipping, and a negative long-term outlook for the commodity market in a context of an extremely strong ruble, explains economist Pavel Ryabov, author of the Telegram channel Spydell Finance.

Under current conditions, oil and gas revenues by the end of the year will not exceed 6 trillion rubles, compared to a forecast of 9 trillion, with the revaluated ruble taking the most significant toll.

Source: Vedomosti