The heating season in Europe has just begun, yet gas storage levels are already depleting at a record pace, typically characteristic of late December. What is causing Europeans to consume their winter gas supplies so quickly, and what are the potential risks involved?
European countries have been withdrawing gas from their underground storage facilities (UGS) at unprecedented rates. Between November 15 and November 30, they extracted 7.7 billion cubic meters, exceeding the levels recorded during the same period in November 2024 by 5%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). The extraction rate at the beginning of the month was lower.
The withdrawal rate in November is ahead of the normal rate by about a month. Typically, the levels of gas stored in EU facilities would reach current levels by the end of December (based on the five-year average), TASS reports.
“The real cold has not yet arrived in Europe. There are several months of winter weather ahead. Technologically, the reduction of storage levels diminishes their efficiency. In the case of severe or prolonged cold spells, inadequate gas supplies in UGS could jeopardize the reliable gas supply to European consumers,” say Gazprom experts.
Several factors have compelled Europeans to withdraw more gas from storage at the beginning of this heating season compared to 2024.
“First, many European companies are currently attempting to sell gas from underground storage because they fear that prices may drop even further. They had previously purchased and injected this gas at higher prices, and they are now concerned about incurring even greater losses,”
– says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (FNEB). Exchange prices for gas in Europe fell to their lowest point in a year and a half, reaching $335 per thousand cubic meters on December 2.
Secondly, the EU is receiving less pipeline gas than last year, as Russian gas shipments through Ukraine have decreased by 15-16 billion cubic meters. “Thus, even with previous LNG volumes, Europeans would still be withdrawing more gas from underground storage. The volumes of gas that were previously delivered daily via Ukraine from Russia are now being compensated by gas from underground storage,” explains an FNEB expert.
Furthermore, the EU has lost over 1 million tons of LNG annually that were previously supplied to the European market from two Russian projects – Kryogas Vysotsk and Gazprom LNG Portovaya. Supplies have since halted due to U.S. sanctions.
The third factor is that Europeans now have an obligation to provide gas to Ukraine. “Previously, Ukraine purchased virtual reverse gas, essentially transit Russian gas, but now it is physically sourcing blue fuel from Europeans. Apparently, Ukraine's own production has declined as a result of Russian strikes, leading to increased dependency on European purchases. Ukraine has put itself in a position where Europeans need to ensure supply for not just their own market, but now also for Ukraine,” says Yushkov.
A fourth distinction this year compared to last year is that gas consumption in Europe has slightly increased in 2025. “Gas consumption in the EU has started to recover following a sharp decline in 2022-2023 due to excessively high prices. This was facilitated by relatively lower prices, around $400 per thousand cubic meters,” Yushkov adds.
However, the cold weather is not yet considered the main reason for the higher gas withdrawals from UGS compared to last year.
What are the dangers of faster withdrawals from underground storage? Primarily, this could result in critically low gas levels by the end of the year.
“The most extreme scenario would occur if severe cold settled in at the end of the heating season. If bitter cold hits in February and March, and gas supplies in storage are low, daily withdrawals will become increasingly difficult.
This would lead to a gas deficit, which would need to be covered exclusively by current imports. This means Europe would have to compete with Asian markets for LNG volumes. Consequently, gas prices would rise, posing a negative impact on the European economy,” Yushkov explains.
Throughout the year, there has been an overall increase in the share of LNG in the gas import structure of the European Union. “The share of LNG in gas imports to the EU has risen from 37% to 45%. If in the first nine months of 2024 the EU imported 297 million cubic meters of LNG daily, then in the same period of 2025, it was 376 million cubic meters,” says Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market.
However, with the advent of the heating season, demand sharply increases—not only in Europe but also in Asia. Asian buyers are incentivizing significant volumes of LNG for themselves through competitive pricing.
As temperatures drop in both Asia and Europe, the competition between regions for limited LNG volumes intensifies, further driving price increases, concludes Yushkov.
Source: VZGLYAD
