Energy News on April 27, 2026: Crisis in the Persian Gulf, Rising Oil and Gas Prices, Impact on the Fuel and Energy Complex and the Global Energy Market
The global fuel and energy complex has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty. The situation in the Persian Gulf, where shipping disruptions continue through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, is back in the spotlight, prompting a sharp rise in insurance premiums and prices for oil and gas. Against this backdrop, increased electricity demand and gas supply interruptions intensify competition for LNG supplies, as countries prepare for shortages of diesel and jet fuel. Global oil prices are once again holding around $100 per barrel, and gas rates have surged to record levels for the beginning of spring. Under these conditions, energy-intensive industries are reassessing their strategies, while investors monitor the liquidity of gas storage facilities and supply logistics. Simultaneously, the crisis is driving investment growth in renewable energy (RE): companies and governments are ramping up projects in solar and wind energy, as well as developing battery storage networks to enhance energy system reliability.
Oil Market: Pricing and Demand Dynamics
Oil prices continue to be influenced by geopolitical risks. Brent is holding around $100/barrel, supported by an insurance premium amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, spot prices for crude for immediate delivery in Europe are rapidly rising—approaching $130–150. Analysts note that global oil stocks remain high (around 7-8 billion barrels outside of Russia), but over half of these reserves are out of reach of consumer countries. The potential for further price rises depends on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the response of OPEC+ producers.
- Drivers: Reductions in supply from the Persian Gulf and geopolitical tension are driving prices upward.
- Demand: Asia is already witnessing a significant decline in demand—many refineries have restricted processing, and planes and ferries have suspended some routes.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs maintains an average Brent forecast for 2026 at around $80-85, believing that the situation may normalize in the summer; however, actual spikes in spot market prices continue to exert pressure on inflation.
The Persian Gulf and Logistics: Alternative Routes
Blockages and fears of escalation surrounding Iran continue to threaten key oil and gas delivery routes. Approximately 20-30% of global energy shipping passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, daily ship traffic has decreased by about four times compared to normal levels. Countries are rapidly redirecting supplies through alternative routes: oil is partially rerouted via Saudi Arabia's western coast and UAE terminals, as well as through the Iraqi pipeline to Turkey. However, all of this comes with rising freight rates and insurance costs, and logistics constraints are becoming a stand-alone source of profit for some companies and a risk for most.
Gas and LNG Market: Competition between Europe and Asia
The natural gas and LNG segment is experiencing an acute phase of competition. The reduction of LNG supplies from the Gulf region following the closure of Hormuz has intensified the race for flexible cargoes. Europe and Asia are now competing for every tanker shipment: European buyers are eager to refill storage ahead of winter, while Asian gas companies are actively seeking immediate supplies on the spot market.
- Stocks: Gas storage filling levels in the EU by the end of March were significantly lower than the five-year average, at around 25%, raising winter shortage risks.
- Prices: Prices at the European TTF hub and the Asian JKM have soared to multi-level highs of 2022, nearly +50-70% in one month.
- Imports: The U.S. has increased LNG exports to a historical maximum, but is still unable to compensate for all losses. New volumes from Qatar, Australia, and Africa will only help partially.
Refining and Oil Products: Capacity Reductions
Refining in Asia is sharply declining. Refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore have already cut throughput—overall processing volume in the region fell by 10-15% in April compared to February. For several plants, Chinese fuel exports were curtailed to maintain internal balance. As a result, diesel and jet fuel production could decrease by 1-1.5 million barrels per day, exacerbating the fuel shortage issue. In Europe, the situation with fuels appears more stable due to domestic production and stocks: the Dutch government has stated that with full utilization of reserves for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, the EU can meet demand for over six months. Nevertheless, prices for oil products have already reached record levels: freight and diesel premiums have particularly soared. For refiners, this means additional foreign currency earnings, but for aviation and transportation companies—new financial burdens.
- Imports: The EU has increased procurement of North Sea and American oil to compensate for the shortage of medium-sulfur grades.
- Reserves: European refineries are cutting back on fuel exports, focusing on the domestic market; strategic reserves have been partially diverted for aviation consumption.
- Support Measures: Airlines and transporters are imposing fuel surcharges, and governments are preparing subsidies and preferential loans for refinery modernization.
Coal and Power Generation: Priority for Reliability
Due to rising gas prices and threats to gas supply, some countries are forced to bolster coal generation to maintain energy balance. In the European Union and Asia, several regions have already announced plans to switch energy blocks to coal "until the crisis is over." This has temporarily increased demand and price for coking and thermal coal—prices for energy-focused grades have risen roughly 15-20% from March to April. However, analysts warn that the scale of this surge is smaller than in 2022, as coal capacities have declined and strict limits apply to Asian contracts. Nevertheless, the heated price parity between gas and coal is prompting some consumers to switch to cheaper fuel. At the same time, countries with developed nuclear generation (France, China) are increasing its share, while owners of reserve generating capacities (power plants) are acquiring additional margins for their readiness to start up quickly.
Renewable Energy: Accelerating Transition
The energy crisis has strengthened the case for "clean" energy. According to IEA estimates, by 2025, global solar and wind capacity installations grew at record rates. China accounted for more than half of global new installations: nearly 370 GW of solar and 117 GW of wind capacity. The European Union added around 85 GW of green generation (mostly solar)—10% more than the previous year. In India and developing regions, growth is even more intense—countries in the Middle East and Africa have doubled their newly added capacities.
- Impulse: Rising oil, gas, and coal prices increase the attractiveness of RE for reducing import dependence. Households are installing solar panels, while the industry is investing in wind projects.
- Investments: Global companies and funds are channeling capital into electrical storage networks and grid modernization. In the U.S., a court has suspended restrictive norms on new projects, expected to expedite the launch of wind and solar stations.
- International Initiatives: At the end of April, a conference entitled "Fossil Fuel Exit" is taking place in Colombia—world leaders are discussing the acceleration of the exit from oil and gas.
Support Measures and Market Forecast
Governments are responding to the energy shock as well. In the EU, financial assistance packages for the population and businesses have been announced: tax holidays, concessional loans for energy efficiency, and subsidies for airlines and transport companies. Plans are being developed for the use of strategic fuel reserves and expansion of LNG imports. At the same time, oil companies are reassessing their investment programs: with current prices, it is profitable to accelerate production, especially in regions with underutilized capacities (U.S., Brazil). However, investors are now focusing more on infrastructure and flexibility. It is important to monitor the filling of European gas storage, the Brent/WTI spread, and the margin on diesel and jet fuel refining. On a global level, the transition from cheap oil to expensive stability is completing the formation of a new energy landscape, where the price of any energy carrier is determined not only by demand but also by the ability to deliver that resource to consumers.
On the eve of Monday, April 27, the global energy sector finds itself in a complex situation: the conflict in the Persian Gulf has led to the largest disruptions in oil and gas history, which will soon reflect on the real economy and inflation. The demand for coal and electricity is rising in the short term, but the strategic trend is toward accelerated adoption of renewable sources and diversification of supplies. Investors and market participants must monitor not only the price dynamics of oil and gas but also logistics factors (tankers, pipelines), fuel reserves, and infrastructure readiness. In the coming weeks, key developments will revolve around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's export plans, gas storage levels, and the cost of alternative energy resources. Ultimately, the ability of companies to manage these risks will determine their success during this period of high volatility in fuel and energy markets.
