The discount in the price of Urals crude oil compared to the price of the benchmark Brent crude is expected to decrease by 26% by the end of 2026, bringing it down to $17 per barrel, as reported in the overview by analysts from Euler. In the second quarter of this year, the average discount is projected to be $23 per barrel, according to experts. In the first quarter, the average discount reportedly stood at $32 per barrel.

The average discount level in 2026 is anticipated to be $22 per barrel, compared to $14 per barrel in 2025, according to Euler's data. By 2027, the average discount is expected to return to around $14 per barrel.

The discount for Russian ESPO oil (East Siberia-Pacific Ocean; from the East Siberia - Pacific Ocean pipeline) compared to Brent crude is projected to fall by 9% to $10 per barrel by the end of this year, analysts from Euler estimate. They also predict that in the first quarter, the figure will be $18 per barrel, dropping to $11 per barrel in the second quarter.

The average discount level for oil in 2026 is expected to be $13 per barrel, while in 2027 it will be $7 per barrel. The figure was $8 per barrel in 2025, according to the company’s data.

Discounts on Russian ESPO oil prices will gradually decrease as the impact of external restrictions on export flows diminishes, as noted in the overview. By 2028, the discount in the price of Urals oil is expected to shrink to $13 per barrel, with ESPO at $5 per barrel.

Discounts on Russian oil prices surged sharply due to tightened sanctions at the end of 2025. The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) expanded sanctions against the Russian oil sector on October 22, citing "Russia's lack of serious interest in a peaceful process" aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Consequently, by November, the average discount in the price of Russian Urals oil had risen to its highest level in over two years (“Vedomosti” reported on this on December 1, 2025). The increase continued in the following months.

Currently, discounts are decreasing as companies adapt to the sanctions—reducing freight costs and other export expenses, notes one of the authors of the review, senior analyst for oil and gas and transportation sectors at Euler, Andrei Polischuk.

Before the tightening of American sanctions in October 2025, the discount for Urals oil stood at $12-14 per barrel, according to Euler. Analysts believe that it will only return to this level in the third quarter of 2027. This lengthy adjustment in exports is attributed to the cumulative effect of a significant number of external restrictions, says Polischuk.
According to Euler's analysts, the average price of Urals oil in 2026 is projected to be $59 per barrel, in 2027 at $45 per barrel, and in 2028 at $53 per barrel. The federal budget for 2026–2028 assumes the price of Urals oil will be $59 per barrel for this year, $61 for 2027, and $65 for 2028. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in May 2026, the average price of Urals oil was $86.52 per barrel.

The future dynamics of discounts in Russian oil prices will depend entirely on geopolitical conditions, says Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin. Should the geopolitical situation improve, the discount in the price of Urals oil could decrease to $10 per barrel or lower, the expert notes. Simultaneously, significant increases in discounts are unlikely to occur since the potential for tightening restrictions on the Russian oil sector has effectively been exhausted.

According to Sergei Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, discounts in Russian oil prices will continue to shrink due to limited raw material supply in the global market, improvements in logistics, and the reorientation of export flows by domestic companies.

Russian companies are adapting to the restrictions relatively quickly, reminds Dmitry Kasatkin, partner at Kasatkin Consulting. He believes that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to the decrease in discounts in the second quarter, as buyers began to pay less attention to the origin of the raw materials, prioritizing physical availability and supply prices.

New sanctions against the Russian oil sector, if imposed, are likely to only temporarily widen discounts, the expert believes. However, if the armed conflict in the Middle East drags on further, oil consumers may begin to restructure imports, altering delivery routes and supplier structures, Kasatkin notes. This could increase competition in the market, potentially slowing the decrease of discounts or even leading to a resurgence in their growth, warns the analyst. Additionally, he highlights that a decline in global oil demand and an increase in supply from other producers could also hinder the reduction of discounts.

Frolov also considers a short-term rise in discounts possible due to increased production and exports from competing suppliers. Conversely, if demand for raw materials from China and India rises, the reduction in discounts could accelerate, the expert believes.

According to analyst Nikolai Dudenko of FG Finam, the average price of Urals oil in 2026 is projected to range between $65 and $75 per barrel. Kasatkin believes that the average price will be higher, between $73 and $78 per barrel.

Source: 
Vedomosti