The increase in crack spread – the difference between the cost of raw materials and the final price of petroleum products – appears quite realistic, considering the drop in Urals prices. According to Argus, the average price of Urals in November 2025 was $44.9 per barrel – the lowest level in the last five years. Consequently, the cheaper the raw material, the more profitable the production of petroleum products becomes.

However, several caveats must be considered.

Firstly, the export volume of petroleum products from Russia is currently at multi-year lows. According to S&P Commodities Insight, maritime shipments of petroleum products from Russia, which exceeded 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) at the beginning of 2024, declined to 2 million b/d by November 2025.

Secondly, due to the embargo, Russia is not conducting maritime shipments of petroleum products to EU countries, which accounted for three-quarters of Russian diesel fuel exports up to 2022. Moreover, shipments to the Asian market are partially hindered due to infrastructural limitations on the Russian Railways network: it is not surprising that, according to Russian Railways, the loading of oil and petroleum products decreased by 5.2% in the first eleven months of 2025 (to 179.6 million tons).

Nonetheless, in December 2025, maritime exports of petroleum products may increase due to partial stabilization of refinery operations. If in August 2025, production of petroleum products in Russia decreased by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, and in September 2025 - by 5%, then in October 2025 it increased by 6.6%.

Therefore, in December 2025, both the volume and the profitability of diesel supplies to the global market may rise.

Source: Vedomosti