Based on a number of indicators, the industry appears to be stabilizing. According to Rosstat, retail prices for gasoline have been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. Moreover, in October 2025, the production of petroleum products in Russia increased by 6.6% compared to the previous month. Finally, on the exchange, prices have "receded" from the multi-month highs of September and October.

In this context, the lifting of the export ban was to be expected. The extension of restrictions is apparently linked to a cautious approach in light of potential unscheduled repairs at refineries. Therefore, oil producers will have to "wait it out" for a couple more months. It is also important to remember that the moratorium on the zeroing of the damping mechanism will remain in effect until the beginning of May 2026.

In practice, this could lead to a new surge in exchange prices, which will be reflected in retail. Oil producers are likely to offset external losses through the domestic market.

Source: Vedomosti