Daily growth in gasoline and diesel fuel prices (DT) on the exchange in Russia is limited to a step of 0.01%. Prices are permitted to drop by up to 3% per day. These regulations have come into effect on the St. Petersburg Exchange. In practice, this means that prices on the exchange are effectively frozen for upwards movements. However, they have significantly increased since the beginning of the year: A-92 gasoline has risen by 25%, A-95 by 33%, and DT by 34%. Such a peculiar ceiling for prices makes it impossible for them to spike sharply due to news about attacks on Russian oil refineries or surges in global oil prices due to crises in the Middle East. With this step, market quotations can only increase by a little over 0.2% per month. For wholesale fuel buyers—large agricultural producers, transport, and construction companies—this means they no longer need to fear further unpredictable cost increases due to rising fuel prices. For gas stations (AZS), it means that the economics of filling stations will not deteriorate week by week. Such concerns have often led to inflated prices at gas stations recently and, at times, to a complete halt of their operations. However, the mentioned measures pertain solely to wholesale fuel buyers on the exchange. A significant portion of fuel is sold on our market, bypassing the exchange. As noted in an interview with "RG," the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, Yuri Stankevich, the decision has been made as an emergency response to a sharp spike in exchange prices. The main goal is to artificially limit speculative inflation of fuel costs within trading sessions and cool down the overheated market. However, it is important to understand that this measure applies exclusively to organized exchange trading. It does not directly affect over-the-counter contracts and the small wholesale segment. In these sectors, pricing is determined by the balance of supply and demand, as well as long-term contracts between suppliers and buyers. Although exchange indicators serve as a market benchmark, the limitation on price growth on the exchange does not guarantee an automatic cessation of fuel price increases in the over-the-counter segment or among small wholesale buyers. Nevertheless, stabilizing exchange prices may exert psychological pressure on participants in other market segments and slow inflationary expectations there. According to the Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, Dmitry Gusev, the increase in prices has not been frozen; it has been paused to prevent the inflation of wholesale prices and to maintain the economics of gas stations and small wholesale. This measure will impact over-the-counter contracts as they are oriented toward exchange quotations. In the small wholesale segment, the influence will be less, as there are currently no restrictions in this market segment. However, it seems that these may be necessary, believes the expert. A different perspective on the problem comes from the CEO of Open Oil Market, Sergey Tereshkin. He is confident that the market will always find loopholes. According to existing norms, only 15% of physical gasoline sales are attributed to the exchange and 16% to DT. Over 80% of the fuel produced is sold through other channels. Most importantly, this measure is unlikely to help the retail fuel market, as prices for A-92, A-95 gasoline, and DT are hovering around the mark of 110,000 rubles per ton in the over-the-counter segment. In addition, it can be stated that the rising prices on the exchange and gas stations are not due to the greed of oil companies or gas station owners. Current problems lie within supply disruptions and delays, as well as the risk of fuel shortages. There is indeed an element of "unhealthy" panic in the market, but panic alone cannot explain the limits on fuel delivery at gas stations. The daily step limitation for fuel price increases on the exchange makes it impossible for prices to spike sharply upward. As noted by the managing partner of NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, measures to prevent price inflation are being taken against the backdrop of a genuinely forming supply deficit and surging demand. Prices at large gas station networks owned by vertically integrated oil companies (VINK - which manage the entire production chain from oil extraction to fuel sales at gas stations) will be maintained at levels closely aligned with inflation. We just need to wait for some time for government measures to take effect. The situation at independent gas stations (more than half of the stations in Russia) is complicated—not just regarding price, but also concerning the capability to acquire necessary fuel volumes. Some may raise prices in this situation; others may cease operations. It will become even more challenging for independent gas stations to compete with VINK gas stations. While sales of related goods and services are favorable, if your fuel is significantly more expensive or unavailable, customers simply will not come, emphasizes the expert. In Stankevich's opinion, there is no direct and immediate correlation between exchange limitations and retail prices. The cost of a liter of fuel at the station comprises numerous components: the wholesale price, transportation costs, gas station network margins, and, critically, fiscal burdens (excise taxes). In Russia, the dynamics of retail prices are typically more inert and smoothed compared to the wholesale market due to a damping mechanism (government payments to oil producers for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels) and oversight from the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS). However, if exchange prices were to continue rising uncontrollably, this would inevitably lead to increased costs for gas station owners and subsequent price hikes for final consumers. Freezing exchange quotations allows breaking this chain and creating conditions for the stabilization or even potential reduction of retail prices in the future, assuming stable demand and the absence of new external shocks. Currently, the decrease in oil prices due to reduced tensions in the Middle East plays in our favor. Following this, oil product prices should fall. But time is needed, and the truce shouldn't be violated by the parties. This leads to the question of how long this growth limitation will be effective. In the short term, it can halt price increases and smooth out fuel quotation jumps. However, over a period, say, from one to two months, if supply problems persist, its influence will diminish. Long-term manual market regulation typically does not yield positive results. Overall, the exchange represents the most transparent segment of the fuel market, and any restrictions regarding exchange trading will encourage the market to "go underground," where prices exceed the exchange level significantly, believes Tereshkin. However, Stankevich counters that the introduction of price change limits is a classic tool for administrative regulation. The state and regulatory bodies are compelled to resort to manual management to stabilize the situation in the short term. Nonetheless, it is premature to speak of a complete transition of the fuel market to manual management. Exchange trading with established limits is merely one tool for control. The market continues to operate based on fundamental economic factors: oil production volumes, refining, tax policy, and logistics costs. Thus, the enhanced oversight measures during the crisis do not negate the continuing function of basic market mechanisms, emphasizes the expert. In Gusev's opinion, it's worthwhile for people to pay attention to alternative modes of transportation. Not horses and donkeys but gas vehicles and the rapidly growing electric vehicle market. One can choose a car that uses fuel that won't irritate due to its price, according to the expert. Meanwhile, in Sevastopol, there has been an increase in the availability of gasoline in free sale. Fuel supplies have managed to increase, with authorities preparing to gradually lift sales restrictions. However, the QR-code filling will remain in place for now to regulate queues at gas stations. A correspondent for "RG" checked the current situation in the region. On June 17, fuel became available in free sale at 11 gas stations, with this number increasing daily. On June 16, there were ten such stations, and on June 15, eight. Motorists are optimistic. Those who have long struggled to find fuel have been able to fill up, albeit only with 20 liters at a time. This restriction has been in effect in Sevastopol since May 22. Starting at 8 a.m. on Wednesday, queues began forming at gas stations. More than 60 cars lined up in anticipation at the "ATAN" station on Stoletov Avenue. Gasoline A-92 and A-95 Ultra were available for free sale at this gas station. Motorists organized the queue so as not to block the roadway and the intersection. Sales commence at 9 a.m., but at 9:20 a.m., an air raid alarm was announced, and fuel sales were halted momentarily. People waited patiently. Motorists were responsive and eager to answer questions. "It has become easier to get fuel in the last couple of days," says Kia driver Sergey. "They have A-92 almost everywhere, while A-95 is rarer." First and foremost, gasoline and diesel are supplied to municipal and emergency services, public transport, and security forces. QR codes are issued to residents for any remaining volumes. Source: RG.RU