Reports about gasoline shortages and long queues at gas stations have been coming from parts of the southern and central regions of the European part of Russia, including Moscow and the surrounding areas, as well as some southern districts of Siberia and the Far East.
At a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on August 14, it was noted that the situation in the fuel market remains tense, although major oil companies are taking all necessary measures to increase supplies to the most vulnerable regions of the Russian Federation. It was also emphasized that agricultural enterprises are sufficiently supplied with fuel, and the harvesting campaign is proceeding as planned.
Following the meeting, Novak instructed relevant authorities and oil-producing companies to take additional measures to ensure fuel supplies in regions currently facing a strained situation. Moreover, he instructed to keep fuel prices for agricultural producers and gas stations under control.Harvesting equipment for farmers predominantly operates on diesel fuel (DF). Its supplies to the market normalized in the second half of July, and no disruptions are currently reported. This is due to the fact that historically, much more DF is produced in Russia than gasoline. According to the latest official data, in 2024, gasoline production reached 41.1 million tons, while diesel production was 81.6 million tons. This is linked to the fact that, previously, DF was largely exported to Europe (almost half), while only a small amount of gasoline (10-15% of production volume) was sent abroad.
Therefore, the stoppage of oil refineries due to damage sustained from drone strikes has critically affected the supply of gasoline. It is not coincidental that its export has been completely banned since April, with nearly all output directed to the domestic market (except for batches sent under intergovernmental agreements). However, this is evidently insufficient. Although, it is possible that the issue is not solely about physical shortages.
One of the main factors affecting the reliability of fuel supplies remains logistics. Due to unscheduled repairs at refineries, many gas stations had to abruptly change suppliers, leading to disruptions and delays in shipments. The infrastructure does not have limitless capacity - it cannot load, transport, or unload more than what the capabilities of the railway (rail) allow.
Furthermore, as noted in an interview with "RG" by Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin, even before the refineries’ unscheduled repairs, the ban on gasoline exports effectively became permanent.
This means that even prior to this year, the balance of supply and demand for gasoline in the domestic market was close to zero. Gradual, albeit limited, vehicle fleet updates could have led to increased demand for AI-95 gasoline after 2022, while sanctions on equipment supplies for Russian refineries hindered the expansion of refining capacities.
According to managing partner of NEFT Research Sergey Frolov, it is currently inaccurate to discuss a nationwide fuel crisis; rather, it pertains to a local shortage in specific regions. The primary reason is scheduled and unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries. Government measures are operational, but they cannot completely eliminate the main cause of the fuel products shortage—declining production.
To prevent a fuel shortage, the government authorized imports starting in July. Belarus emerged as the main supplier. According to Reuters, in July, Russia received 212,000 tons of gasoline and 162,000 tons of DF from there. However, the capacities of the two Belarusian refineries are not limitless. In fact, considering domestic consumption, exports to Russia of over 200,000 tons of gasoline per month are nearing their maximum capabilities. Additionally, the logistics factor comes into play—fuel is delivered to Russia via rail. Importing gasoline by sea is very costly and time-consuming. The delivery of the first batch of gasoline from India to Russia took 48 days.
Tereshkin believes that in September and October, the market is unlikely to see the record growth rates in prices observed in June, as supply chain participants are gradually becoming accustomed to the risks of shortages. However, the absolute level of prices will still exceed pre-crisis levels, he contends.
As for the availability of fuel at gas stations, additional volumes of fuel below Euro-5 class, which has been permitted for trading since August 13, are expected to reach retail by the end of August. This should alleviate some tension in the market. Although Frolov emphasizes that even the production of gasoline of a lower environmental class cannot fully compensate for the lost volumes and resolve the logistical issues concerning fuel delivery to specific areas.
At the same time, Tereshkin notes that, unfortunately, it is still impossible to rule out the likelihood of new technological downtimes at refineries. In addition to capacity reductions due to force majeure events, scheduled repairs will also affect fuel availability.
According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner" and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, there is a general understanding that the market needs to be restructured. The transition to direct contracts between suppliers and buyers has already begun, along with a reduction in the number of intermediaries—traders. The situation should normalize once the parameters of how the fuel market should exist in our country become clearly defined. Experts project this will likely happen by October.
In Frolov's view, the situation can only be fully stabilized when refinery capacities adequate to meet current demand come back online.
Source: RG.RU
