Importing fuel into Russia has been permitted since July 1 to prevent shortages in the market during the high-demand vacation season. The volume of Russian oil refining has been forced down due to unexpected shutdowns for maintenance at oil refineries (OR) following drone attacks.
This has primarily impacted the supply of gasoline in the domestic market, with production only being about 10-15% higher than consumption in Russia. The export of gasoline was banned back in April 2026, but by the end of summer, due to the seasonal increase in demand, additional volumes were needed.
The main influx of fuel imports came from Belarusian refineries (212 thousand tons in July), but some shipments were made from India and Morocco. According to Reuters, approximately 140 thousand tons of gasoline arrived in Murmansk by the end of July. Moreover, information from S&P Global Commodities at Sea indicates that around 23 thousand tons of gasoline from Turkey are currently heading to Russia. Notably, these shipments are not going to the nearest Russian port of Novorossiysk, but rather to Baltic ports, which will inevitably increase transportation costs.
Gasoline from India is initially significantly more expensive than Russian gasoline.Meanwhile, the situation regarding fuel in some regions of the Russian Federation remains tense. There are closed gas stations, and long queues often form at those that are operational. The main issue with fuel imported from overseas by sea is its price. Since imported gasoline is initially more expensive than Russian gasoline, a damping mechanism applies to such supplies. This is a subsidy from the budget that compensates importers for part of the difference between indicative wholesale prices set by the government in Russia for the year and fuel costs in external markets. Delivery costs are also factored in. Despite this compensation, however, Indian or Moroccan gasoline (AI-92) on the St. Petersburg Exchange has been traded at a price of 105 thousand rubles per ton, which is 39% higher than the exchange quotes for AI-92 (75,530 rubles per ton).
This is not the price buyers would like to see, and it is not a price at which gasoline can be sold at gas stations, noted Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association, in a conversation with "RG". Taking delivery costs into account, the retail price of such gasoline at gas stations could approach 100 rubles or higher. However, without the damping mechanism, it would cost 150 or 160 rubles per liter, the expert points out.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, prices for Indian fuel will significantly exceed the prices of supplies from Russian refineries, even considering subsidies from the "import" damping mechanism. The subsidies will be disbursed with a certain lag, similar to how payments under the damping mechanism for Russian refineries occur. Due to the need to cover high logistics costs, fuel importers will provide significant discounts to end buyers.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner at NEFT Research, believes that there is also a factor of rising logistics costs due to increasing freight rates and general delivery risks to Russia. Besides maritime delivery, fuel must be distributed across Russia, which also incurs extra expenses. This explains the high cost of gasoline on the exchange.
Gusev emphasizes that the situation with imported marine fuel supplies should normalize. People are quite conservative; they are hesitant to purchase new supplies. For instance, it is currently unclear how to handle supplies of gasoline with lower environmental standards (Euro-2, Euro-3, Euro-4), which have just been permitted for circulation. We need to wait for a couple of weeks for the situation to normalize so that everyone understands how to proceed, the expert believes.
Additionally, it can be noted that the demand for gasoline in Russia traditionally declines in the second half of September, which should positively impact fuel availability and prices at gas stations. In fact, this year, given the existing challenges, it may start to decrease even earlier.
Tereshkin is confident that India will be the primary supplier of gasoline by sea to Russia, which is also one of the largest consumers of Russian oil. It is no coincidence that the calculation of import parity for determining the damping for importers is tied to the cost of fuel at Indian ports, adjusted for the transportation costs to Russian ports, including insurance premiums and handling fees. Moreover, Indian refineries are unlikely to export fuel with high sulfur content (lower environmental standards), as this would result in losses not only in the Russian market but also in other markets.
Frolov believes that the volumes of imports from abroad are likely to remain at a level that cannot significantly influence gasoline prices in Russia, nor fully compensate for the volumes lost due to refinery shutdowns. Currently, imports cover about 5% of the country’s monthly needs.
Source: RG.RU
